January 19, 2000 (1:00AM)
System for Thursday appears to be on schedule with no major changes
in the forecast. Doesn't look like a major storm for
Philadelphia at this time, however points closer to the coast
could get hit with significant snow, high winds, and
beach erosion. The system isn't all that complex, but
uncertainties remain as far as exact track and strength
of the system. This system will undergo bombogenesis
somewhere off the coast and will be intense especially
upon reaching about 40N latitude. The storm system in question
is just beginning to emerge from the Rockies
and will find its way into the Ohio
Valley by late tomorrow night. For us, that means, as often
is the case, temperatures will moderate somewhat Wednesday
in advance of the storm system to our west. We should
see highs in the lower 30's rather than 20's.
Wednesday night will feature increasing clouds. By daybreak
Thursday, the low, now centered somewhere near West
Virginia, should begin to transfer some of it's energy to the
coast and a secondary low will redevelop close to Cape Hatteras
and quickly intensify. We should begin to see light snow
by midday. Exact timing is still off a bit, so by tonight,
I will be able to put a time on the start of the snow. Snow
should be light most of the day and possibly intermittent
the way it looks now. Snow should taper to flurries late
Thursday night with a howling wind and frigid temperatures
setting in once again. So, right now, this looks like nothing more
than a nuicance snow, but one model (NGM) has hinted at
a moderate snow event for us in PHL. Overall concensus however says this
will be no big deal and Philly will live to see another day.
Looks like a possible 1-3 inch event for now. On the other
hand, places near the coast, especially Cape Cod, look
extremely vulnerable to this system. If the track was
just right, a foot wont be out of the question for that
area. Of course I
will be updating throughout the day Wednesday, so feel free
to stop back and see if there are any changes to the
forecast. Take care!