January 19, 2002
Only a minor change or two from last night's forecast, so everything still looks on track for the snow system that will affect the region during the day on Saturday. This will not be a 'major' storm system, as in one for the record books, but considering the lack of snowfall we have had this year, the snow that falls will seem like alot to many folks. The only real change that I would add here is I am basically going to rule out any chance there was before that the snow would change to plain rain. It may however turn to, or mix with sleet for a period. The timing for all this is as follows for the general PHL area: Light snow to overspread the region around midday. Snow will become more moderate rather quickly after onset, and will become heavy for a period in the afternoon. Snow may mix with or change to sleet for a period, especially South and East of the city during the height of the storm. I have slightly adjusted snowfall totals from 2-5" to 3-6" for the immediate Philadelphia area and adjacent suburbs. Snow should ease up and taper to flurries by around 10PM. According to some guidance, totals could be quite a bit higher into the 6-10" range. However, I feel confident with the 3-6" for the immediate PHL area right now, but would hedge toward the higher end of that 3-6" total for now. We will be right along the snow/mix line during the height of the event, so snowfall rates just West of the mix line *could* surpass 1"/hour with low visibilities for a period in the afternoon.
So, either way you slice it, we are confronting our first widespread measurable snowfall of the season on Saturday. Roadways will become snowcovered quickly, and driving conditions will certainly deteriorate during the afternoon and evening, so if you can, stay home and cheer on the Eagles (Go Birds!!). Expect 3-6" of total snow accumulations in the immediate Philly area, but I am hedging toward the higher end of that total, lesser the farther North and West you head. With any event, the storm could pull a surprise and intensify, giving us more snow, or it could get kicked through the region faster than forecast and provide less accumulation than progged. Confidence is slightly above average with this forecast. Please check back for any additional updates Saturday. Take care!
S.B.
