January 20, 2001
A flash flood watch remains in effect for our area into Saturday morning. Rain will continue for the remainder of the night and will be heavy at times. Lows in the mid 30s. There are reports from Blue Bell PA, about 15 miles North of Media, Delaware County, that snow and sleet have already begun to mix with the rain. This is obviously well ahead of schedule, but the rain/snow line is hardly moving at this time. Any frozen mix *should* stay out of our area (again, central Delaware County) until daybreak at the very earliest.
Rain will continue into Saturday and will begin to mix with and change to sleet before noon. A period of heavy sleet is possible. Forecasting the timing of rain/sleet/snow is extremely difficult for this storm as any air below freezing in the lower level will yield sleet, while if the upper levels cool off quickly enough, will yield snow. Tough to put an exact timing on duration of sleet, but will say a period is still likely into the afternoon. Temperatures slowly falling into the lower 30s as the day progresses. Precip should taper off for a period later in the afternoon before a second area arrives in response to the upper level low moving over us. As the second piece of moisture moves in later Saturday afternoon/early evening, it will fall as mostly snow across our area and will continue into the night. Snow may get heavy for a period before tapering to snow showers Sunday morning. Total accumulations from 4-8 inches of snow. Lows Saturday night in the mid 20s.
Sunday morning will feature a few leftover snow flurries, but skies will become partly cloudy as the day progresses. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 30s. Remainder of the week through Wednesday looks fair with highs in the 30s each day.
So, if this forecast holds, expect the NWS to issue a Winter Storm Watch for our area early Saturday. Their latest discussion from 9:10 PM calls for 2-4 inches of snow, but since new guidance has arrived since then, expect an increase in their totals for our area. Feel that 4-8 inches is a good range since models hint at anywhere from 3-6 (AVN/NGM/GGEM) to 6-12 (ETA/RGEM). Think the latter models may be overdone on QPF however. Regardless, rain will mix with and turn to sleet for a period on Saturday. Could be heavy before it tapers to sleet/snow showers in the afternoon. Second batch arrives in response to the upper low crossing the region late afternoon or early evening as all snow. Snow will continue into early Sunday and may be heavy for a period. Total accumulations, once again, 4-8 inches. Another update available around noon Saturday. Take care.
12:30PM UPDATE
Once again, things still on track for snow tonight in our area. Rain tapered off early this morning though, so the forecast for consistent rain to sleet to snow has faded. Mixed showers should still occur throughout the region this afternoon as temperatures continue to steadily drop near freezing. A batch a moisture is developing near DC and will work it's way into the region in the next couple of hours. Another break with more mixed showers behind that until evening, where at that time, precip from the upper level low should start infiltrating the region. Snow will get heavy for a period tonight and will last into Sunday morning. Total accumulation still look on track for 4-8 inches accross the region. Hedging towards the lower side of that, but if the energy aloft passes directly over us, which it likely will, some isolated areas will see amounts toward the higher end. All in all, 4-8 seems a decent range for this event. Snow will taper to flurries early Sunday and skies begin to partially clear out during the day. That's all for now. Will not be able to update again until early Sunday due to work issues, so to stay abreast of any developments, check the links page. Take care.
