December 14, 1999
With a busy holiday shopping weekend approaching (the final
full weekend before Chirstmas), and the arrival of winter
next week, it seems only fitting to open the Northeast
U.S. Winter Weather page for business. Many of my friends
have been commenting recently about the above normal temperature
pattern that we have been in. My answer to those winter
weather lovers is hang in there (see
Winter
1999-2000 Outlook). We are gradually entering a
pattern change and these types of changes take time = it
will not happen overnight. Several impulses from the Pacific
should make there way onshore in Washington and Oregon through
the next several days where those areas will be pounded with heavy
rain and high winds except the higher elevations which will
see lots of snowfall. The computer models are in fair agreement
overall through the next 4 days in regards to large scale
features, but differences occur among the strength, timing, and
positioning of different shortwaves ejecting out of the
Northwest. The first disturbance has moved into the
Great Lakes region and is affecting us now with moderate
rain well ahead of the main storm (mainly from a warm front which
seems to have stalled over the mid-Atlantic). A chillier
air mass is expected to follow this system bringing
daytime temperatures near normal for the next few days. By
Thursday evening, another piece of energy is forecasted
to drop down out of Alberta, Canada (yes, a clipper-type system).
Models are still in disagreement as to the strength and
track of this disturbance, but the majority of the models
bring this sytem through Illinois, Philadelphia, and off
the Eastern seaboard by Sunday night. Precipitation is usually light with these
systems, so I don't expect it to be a big deal in regards
to precipitation amounts. Temperatures Saturday should be warm enough
for any precipitation to be mainly rain, but boundary layer
temps *may* just be cold enough at the start to support some
wet snowflakes or perhaps a mix for a brief period. Either
way, it looks like no big deal, just a hint that winter
is right around the corner. Check back later for any
updates.
