December 18, 2000
WOW! What a dynamic storm system that ripped through the eastern US during the past 36 hours. Here are a few of the weather conditions observed at various locales in the US: severe thunderstorms(several areas), heavy rain(several areas), tornadoes(possible F4 in Tuskaloosa, AL), hail(Delaware County and several other areas), snow(midwest and other areas), -50 wind chills(Minnesota), freezing rain(many interior areas of the northeast), winds gusts in excess of 40mph(several areas), dramatic temperature drops behind the frontal passage(most areas), fog(several areas), and flash flooding(several areas). So, this was one for the record books as far as intense weather is concerned. The immediate Delaware County area saw rain begin early Saturday morning and turn to drizzle during the day as temperatures rose into the 50s. Fog developed during the evening cutting visibility in many areas to under 1/4 of a mile. Two separate tornado watches were issued for the area, one around 2AM on Sunday and another around 7AM as strong thunderstorms passed through the region. Winds gusted to 46 mph Sunday morning while temperatures were in the 60s. Rain and showers continued through mid-afternoon and temperatures dropped into the 30s and finally into the upper 20s where they stand as this discussion is being issued. So, a rather wild ride as Mother Nature reminded us who's the boss.
Now, all eyes turn toward this upcoming week, the week before the Christmas holiday, and the weather looks anything but settled during this period. SNUWW had mentioned a White Christmas as being a "strong possibilty" in the Winter 2000-2001 Outlook for Delaware County, and things are looking up in that department. Certain variables need to fall into place for that to happen, and much of the model guidance is showing these variables beginning to do just that. There are two possibilities for wintry weather this week, one around Tuesday and another for later in the week, perhaps Friday->Sunday time frame.
Conditions Monday will be pleasant. Mostly sunny with the high in the lower 40s. Clouds will increase Monday night as the first disturbance approaches our area. Lows will range from 24-29. On Tuesday there is the chance for either a period of light snow or rain changing to snow as the disturbance tries to spin up an area of low pressure off the SE coast. Most models are on to the fact that the trough (upper feature associated with the disturbance) will go negative tilt (in laymans terms, means will allow the developing wave to track N/NNE/NEward as opposed to being scooted ENE/Eward off the coast). Still some uncertainty as to critical temps and amount of precip, but this first system will *not* be a major winter storm for *our* area. Will post snowfall totals tomorrow afternoon/night if necessary. Am fairly certain that we will see some flakes, just a matter of how much falls and how much rain is involved. This will likely be a rain to snow situation, perhaps all snow if temperatures are cold enough at the onset.
Things will clear out Wednesday with the high in the upper 30s. Thursday will be partly cloudy with highs around 40. On Friday, clouds will increase as a potential major winter storm approaches our area from the Gulf States. At this time, most models show a classic setup for a winter storm in our area: significant trough in the east, powerful jetstream energy, ample energy diving into the trough, and more digging energy on the backside of the trough. This all leads to a significant low pressure area developing somewhere over the central Gulf States. Too early say exactly where all the ingredients will come together, but they are there on most of the models and ensemble members. At this time, and this is really going out a limb this far in advance, it looks like the I-95 corridor, as is often the case with a storm taking this sort of track, will be the dividing line between heavy snow and rain. This can and will likely change throughout the week, but that is the setup at this point in time. Someone in the Northeast should get dumped on late in the week.
So, it looks like an active week in weather has already begun for the Northeast. Needless to say, this is an important week being the week prior to Christmas, so expect several updates to finetune things. Once again, wintry weather will be in our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Right now, it does not look like a big deal for the Delaware Valley, but could give our area it's first minor snow accumulations of the year. Then another, more potent system reaches our area later in the week. Please check back for an update Monday afternoon or night. Take care.
