January 22, 2004
Just a quick update today in regards to the potential for a vigorous winter storm that looks to affect the region the second half of this weekend. While many of the details need to be hammered out, one cannot simply ignore the major implications that the computer model forecasts have been hinting around about the past day or so in regards to this potential 'event'. While not a very impressive storm in terms of pure dynamics and energy, this system will have plenty of moisture to work with as it will be fed by the subtropical jet stream with much Gulf of Mexico influence.
Before getting too excited about our potential storm that is just moving into the Southwestern US and more specifically, Arizona (Satellite View), let's talk about the weather that will lead into the weekend. The remainder of today will be variably cloudy with scattered snow showers possible. Little or no accumulation is expected. The culprit is an Alberta Clipper swinging through the Northeast well to OUR North. As always, this will once again reinforce colder air into the region. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 30s this afternoon. Colder tonight under partly cloudy skies with the low temperature around 12F. Partly sunny on Friday but noticeably colder with highs around 23F. Winds will be brisk with wind chills dropping to below zero once again late tonight and most of the day Friday. Partly cloudy again Friday night with the low around 10F. Saturday will feature partly sunny skies with the high around 26F. Then the fun looks to begin . . .
Clouds will increase late Saturday and into Saturday night as our storm system currently in the Southwest moves closer to our area. While the upper level energy associated with this system is forecasted to weaken on it's trek across the US, ample moisture will have already been gathered and will start to overrun the colder air in the East. All the while, a nose of cold high pressure will be keeping the Cold Air wedged in place East of the Appallachian mountain chain. To forecasters, this is referred to as CAD (cold air damming) where Northerly winds at the surface force cold air to wedge itself along and East of the mountains. In the past, this has made for some historic ice and snow storms in our region. At this time, I would not rule out the possibility of an ice 'event' on Sunday, but this scenario looks less likely as cold air will still be kept in aloft allowing for mostly a snow event in our neck of the woods.
The storm system looks to begin to affect our area around midday on Sunday. Computer models are still somewhat diverse on the eventual outcome in terms of apparent weather in our area, but a trend to bring the heavier moisture farther North into our area while keeping colder temps locked in has been noted. My gut feeling at this time is that we see snow on Sunday, likely moderate to heavy for a period and *possibly* mixing with freezing rain before ending late Sunday night into early Monday.
Again, much too early to get any more specific at this time, especially considering we are still seeing differing model solutions, but things should start fine-tuning themselves later tonight. To give just an idea of the spread among models, we have one piece of guidance suggesting a weak and dry system with 1-2" of snow all the way to a handful of guidance painting 6-14" of snow for our area Sunday!!
The entire evolution of the synoptic pattern over the U.S. during the next 3-10 days is nothing short of mind-boggling to forecasters nationwide. With blocking signatures being noted near Greenland (a favored area which will direct storminess to the South) and the North Atlantic Oscillation getting ready to tank (simply a reflection of the blocking near Greenland forcing colder temps and storminess farther South into the Eastern US), the prospects for an historic episode of wintry weather are ever increasing during next week for a large portion of the States. This Satellite View should give even someone with zero weather knowledge an idea of how the pattern looks like a conveyor belt of storms rolling across the Pacific Ocean and into the United States. In short, put on your seatbelts because the following 10 days looks like a heck of a ride for many of us . . .
S.B.
