January 22, 2005
Will keep discussion short tonight as most data has come to a general solution on how much snow the area will receive.
A WINTER STORM WARNING has been posted for the entire state of Pennsylvania and most counties in the state of New Jersey.
The forecast looks as follows: Clouds on the increase overnight. Tonight is already notably colder thant forecasted by guidance. Calm winds and very cold with low temperature around 7F.
Snow breaks out across the region by noon on Saturday and will become heavy during the afternoon hours. Northeast winds will increase to 10-15mph. High temperature in the upper 20s. As all the dynamics begin to take shape aloft and the coastal storm system begins to undergo bombogenesis off the DelMarVa Coastline, CSI banding will occur and snowfall rates could exceed 2-3" per hour for a period with thundersnow a distinct possibility (have your video cameras reay for this one folks!). Some guidance has hinted that as this is taking place, warmer air will be rushed in at the surface due to a very strong low level jet screaming in off of the ocean. South Jersey and parts of Delaware will mix with or change to sleet and possibily even plain rain for a period before going back to all snow at night. There is the outside chance that this warm layer will make it to Philadelphia, but intense convection and extremely heavy snowfall rates will dynamically cool the air and *should* keep areas West of I-95 in PA as all snow.
Snow may ease up for a period Saturday night as the storm gets it's act together off the coast and the dry slot associated with the comma head nears the region. Snow lovers - do not fear . . . as the upper level low and rear side of the comma head pass over, snow will resume with snowfall ratios approaching 20:1. Gusty winds out of the North at 20mph with gusts will prevail and temperatures will bottom out near 16F Satuday night. Blizzard conditions are possible at times Saturday afternoon and night with near whiteout conditions at times.
Light snow continues into Sunday morning but will taper off to flurries by midday. The big story Sunday (besides the Eagles victory over the Falcons) will be bitterly cold temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing and drifting snow. High temperatures Sunday will be around 20F. Winds will be strong out of the North at 25-30mph with gusts to near 40mph. Wind chills will be WELL below zero at times.
Total snowfall accumulations for Philadelphia and adjacent N & W 'burbs' will average from 10-18". Lesser amounts likely in Southern Jersey (4-8"). However, totals will be near 20" in parts of central NJ and as you head Northward. For folks in Boston and parts of Southern New England, totals will easily reach 2-3'!!
That is it for now. A long day coming on Saturday and Sunday. Stay warm and stay dry!
S.B.
