December 24, 2002
Some minor uncertainties still remain with the forecast for the upcoming storm (timing issues), but several things have become clearer over the past 24 hours. The clearest data is that surface temps and critical layer temps will be very warm for much of the even Wednesday in the immediate Philadelphia area. Unless the storm system, currently in the deep south near Texas, has some serious tricks up it's sleeve, the only thing that people residing near Philly will be shoveling is alot of wrapping paper on Christmas Day.
Tuesday will feature increasing clouds, highs around 40. Tuesday night will be cloudy with mixed precip or rain likely after midnight. Lows in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday will be cloudy with any mixed precip changing to all rain by daybreak. Rain will turn over to snow later in the day with accumulations up to an inch in Southeastern PA, maybe 2 in some spots. Becoming windy with SE winds becoming NE later in that day. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 30s. Wednesday night continued cloudy with a snow shower or flurry, lows around 30 with gusty NW winds. Partly sunny Thursday, high around 40. Remainder of the week is fair and seasonable.
So, unless this system plays some major tricks on us, which seems unlikely at this point since guidance is coming around to a reasonable solution, rain will be the dominant precip type on Christmas Day. Another late update Tuesday afternoon/night, but things look right on track and confidence is medium at this point in the forecast. Stay dry!
S.B.
