December 26, 2000
Hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas 2000 given the well below normal temperatures we had today. Wind chills were well below zero with the high temperature only reaching the lower 20s across the region. Clear and cold will continue overnight with the low getting into the single digits. Tuesday will start off mostly sunny but clouds will filter into the region during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s to near 30. Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy with the chance for a flurry or two. Lows around 20. Clouds will clear out early Wednesday giving way to partly cloudy skies. High in the lower 30s. Thursday will also be partly cloudy with the high around freezing. Then our potential winter storm approaches.
Friday will feature increasing cloudiness with the high in the lower 30s. A storm system from the Gulf of Mexico, which was discussed in detail yesterday will be making it's way across Florida and off the southeast coast during the day on Friday. At this point, almost all of the forecast guidance phases this system with a shortwave diving into the Tennessee Valley and sends it up the eastern seaboard. Looking at 500 mb heights and judging by the trend of the freeze line at 850 mb, this system would favor all snow for us at this time. Granted, this is still 4-5 days away and could change, but this is the trend that is being shown by the model suites at 0Z Tuesday.
This system will likely undergo bombogenesis (deepening of an area of low pressure at the rate of 1 mb per hour over a 24 hour period) off the East coast during the second half of the day on Friday. This is also supported well by most guidance. By late Friday night, the system is making it's move up the seaboard, parallel to the coast, perhaps no more that 100 miles east in some places. By Saturday morning, the system is completely phased and sitting just east of the DelMarVa at around 980 mb +/- ~ 5. The models are showing a true noreaster with strong northeasterly winds affecting much of the region. By Saturday night, most of the damage is done, and it moves NE/NNE to affect parts of New England.
Will this scenario definitely happen i.e. a potent noreaster moving up the east coast? No, it is not etched in stone, but *almost* every model gives this stormy solution, so confidence is medium still. There is still the possibility that the shortwaves never phase, but this scenario seems very unlikely at the moment. Could the two pieces of upper level energy phase too late sparing our region from the worst part of the storm? That is certainly still a valid possibility. Just as a side note, the precipitation fields on these maps are not as drastic as yesterday, but would still give our area a good dumping of snow. The storm system is showing up more tightly wrapped and organized, so the heaviest precipitation *may* wind up being confined to 100 miles either side of the low. Not willing to talk about any potential amouts at this time as guidance is still attempting to hedge toward a reasonable solution. Could it be a major storm with several inches of snow? It sure could, but will not discuss this scenario this far out just yet.
So, to reiterate, the next few days look partly sunny and cold. As we approach late week around Friday into Saturday, there are signs that a potent storm may head up the east coast. Temperatures would likely be cold enough to support all snow, but if two pieces of energy don't phase, or phase too late in time, the system in question would be sheared off the southeast coast and out to sea. That secenario seems unlikely right now. So just a heads up that a strong area of low pressure may effect our region later in the week. Stay tuned on this developing situation. There will be an update at some point tomorrow afternoon or late night.
