January 26, 2004
Round one of this wintry blast has pulled away leaving many in the region right in the middle of our 3-6" forecast. Here are some storm totals as of 11AM:
Chester County
Honey Brook: 3.5"
West Chester: 3"
Delaware County
Media: 3.3"
Chadds Ford: 3.2"
Clifton Heights: 3.5"
Montgomery County
Willow Grove: 4"
Blue Bell: 3.4"
Places farther South picked up a touch more in terms of snowfall amounts. For example, in Delaware:
Kent County
Dover: 4.5"
Smyrna: 6.5"
And in New Jersey (specifically Southern portions):
Cape May County
Cape May: 4.2"
Cape May Courthouse: 5.3"
Rio Grande: 4.5"
Town Bank (Hi mom and dad!): 4.5"
So, as you can see, this storm behaved exactly as planned so far, with totals in Delco falling closer to the low end of our 3-6" totals as predicted. Also, as noted, the heavier precipitation, in general, was to our South and into Southern portions of New Jersey. However, this is just phase one of this three-prong storm system. Again, while this has not been a 'major' storm, so to speak, travel has been impacted and schools and local events cancelled throughout the region. So, as you can see, it doesn't take a blizzard in our neck of the woods to cause mass hysteria and hordes of panic stricken citizens to flock to their local grocery store with thoughts of being trapped in their humble abodes for the remainder of the winter months. Regardless, phase two is now upon us and should cause little in the way of any problems. In essence, we are in between two storm systems at this time, and we will see periods of snow showers, sleet, and even freezing drizzle over the next 12-18 hours. I think I will coin the phrase "frizzle" to mean freezing drizzle. Majority of this precipitation will be light, but there could be a few quick bursts of heavier precip at times this afternoon and tonight. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. High temperature today rising to 26F late in the day.
Continued periods of snow showers, sleet, and frizzle overnight. There could be another period of moderate precipitation later tonight. Accumulations will range from a coating to an inch of snow and sleet. Low temperature tonight around 30F. After tonight, things get a bit more tricky to pinpoint.
As you can see on this Infrared Satellite Photo, there is yet another disturbance, sitting back over the Plains. A quick look at a the Water Vapor Loop shows a vigorous spin of vorticity over the Plains. This upper level low will continue to dig a bit farther South, will close off, and thus slow down and redevelop an area of low pressure off the North Carolina coastline over the next 24 hours. This, my friends, is phase 3!
In terms of apparent weather for our area, expect Tuesday to start off cloudy with periods of sleet and frizzle still likely. There is a chance that any frozen precipitation changes over to just plain rain and drizzle in the early afternoon, but we are going to have to wait and see exactly on that. In any event, low pressure will be organizing itself off the Carolina coastline early on Tuesday and will begin to move North-Northeastward up the coast in response to our upper level disturbance heading to the East. There are a few scenarios that could play out here. I will outline them quickly, and then tell you what I feel is going to happen.
Scenario 1: Temperatures in the region push into the mid 30s during the day Tuesday and could even rise into the upper 30s as the storm from our South heads Northward. Steady rain develops in the afternoon and turns back to snow for a period before ending Wednesday morning. Accumulations from a coating to 2"
Scenario 2: Temperatures in the region hover around freezing most of the day Tuesday as a wedge of cold air stands it's ground in the region. Sleet and freezing rain mix with plain rain in the afternoon and evening, and could accumulate on surfaces before changing to snow after dark. Accumulations of snow and sleet 1-4"
Scenario 3: Snow, or a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain begin in the afternoon and evening Tuesday and changeover quickly to all snow. Moderate to heavy snow continues overnight Tuesday before tapering to snow showers Wednesday morning. Accumulations for 5-10"
As you can see, this 3rd phase looks to be the trickiest to pinpoint right now because we will need to see exactly where this secondary storm will redevelop. If it develops farther South and East, it will draw in colder air and we get hit with a major snowstorm. If it develops farther North and West, warm air will get mixed in and mostly a mix will fall. Right now, we are going for a combination of Scenarios 2 and 3. The reasoning behind this is that while some models are hinting that it will be a touch warmer that originally thought, this system looks like it will develop farther South and East. This should, in fact, give us a period of accumulating snowfall in the region Tuesday night. Precise timing for a changeover is not clear at this time, and will make all the difference in the world regarding how much snowfall our area will see.
So, for now, we are going with periods of mixed precip the remainder of the day and tonight. Temperatures gradually rising to near 30 overnight. Mixed precip during the 1st half of the day Tuesday with round 3 of precipitation moving during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. It looks to start as a mix and could even change to plain rain before turning over to all snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulations could be several inches. Another update either late tonight or early Tuesday AM. Take care!
S.B.
