December 8, 2001
Seemed like winter would never start in the Northeast this year, but finally we have something to talk about. For the Philadelphia area, we will see beneficial rain from a storm system arriving on Saturday. A few things to note about this system. First, the fact that some folks, including myself, caught on so late to this potential threat can likely be attributed to the persistence of the ridge off the southeast coast. Earlier in the week, guidance had the piece of energy associated with the system, flattening out that ridge. Hence, the storm system was progged to be farther south and more sheared out as it pulled off the NC coastline. As we got within 48 hours of the event, it started to become apparent that the ridge would not budge so easily, hence keeping the energy farther West while digging it deeper and actually holding a piece of energy back over Texas later in the period. With that said, the system should NOT be very strong, although it will have decent moisture to work with. The battle between an area of high pressure anchored over the Northeast and the ridge off the southeast coast will play a huge role in determining the exact track of the system. Glancing at current GOES loops across the US, this storm is not very well developed, but there is a very ample feed of moisture arriving all the way from Baja, CA!! Another thing that stands out on the satellite is the southeast ridge trying to build West once again. So, what I am gathering is that the storm will likely be just a bit farther North and West than currently progged at 0Z.
An area of low pressure is developing over Arkansas and will head ENE through the Ohio Valley midday Saturday, across Southern Maryland, and will exit the coast near Atlantic City, New Jersey late Saturday night.
With that said, rain will break out in Philadelphia by noon on Saturday and continue through the day. Rain may be heavy at times and I would not be surprised if a few areas hear a clap of thunder. High in the upper 40's Saturday. Rain Saturday night with the temperature dropping to around 40. The storm pulls out by late Saturday night with a leftover shower or even a snow flurry early Sunday. Partly sunny and seasonably chilly with highs in the mid 40s.
Places in central and Northern PA could see up to 2-4 inches of snow and a few locations (depending on elevation) could see up to 6. Some places in New England could actually see just a bit more, again depending on elevation and proximity to the ocean.
So, winter will be making a return to parts of the Northeast over the weekend with the first widespread accumulating snows of the season, just enough to make the snow geese happy for a day or two. Temperatures will rebound early in the week, but will not get quite as warm as they have been in recent weeks. The piece of energy left behind in Texas by this weekend's system could come into play during the middle of the week with more much-needed precipitation for the region.
S.B.
