January 6, 2002
Just a brief update before I ship off to work. Not many changes at the moment, but I will add that it is warmer than expected, so will drop accumulations in the general PHL area to less than 1" through Monday night. There is still the chance that a piece of energy gets left behind from the low pressure area, and that is our only real shot at accumulating snows at this time. So, expect a cold rain tonight possibly tapering to flurries by daybreak. Chance of intermittent snows during the day on Monday with accumulations less than 1". Farther North and West of the city still looks to get dumped with some heavy snow, but for the immediate area, this does not even warrant a snow advisory.
Good afternoon. Let me first begin by saying this will be quite brief as I just became an uncle a short while ago and I am off to the hospital to see the family!!! Keeping with the theme of brevity, I will also keep this forecast confined (as I generally try) to the general Philadelphia area. On that same token, I would get into much more detail if I saw a large storm system headed towards the area, but quite frankly, I do not see what all the hooplah over this next storm is about. Sure, we will see our first flakes of snow for the season, but this is by no means a major winter storm by any stretch of the imagination. The biggest factor in keeping accumulations of snow down in the PHL region will not necessarily be the mixed precipitation or the rain to begin the even, but rather the forward speed of the storm system. Suffice to say, I am expecting conditions to warrant 'Advisory' criteria rather than a Winter Storm Watch, but that is my opinion, and the NWS out of Mt. Holly may think differently.
Anyway, rain should begin in the PHL area during mid to late afternoon on Sunday depending on your exact location. Farther N & W will start off as snow or even a mix into Western Bucks, Northern Montgomery and Western Chester Counties, for example, with rain farther S & E. Any mixed precipitation or rain will change over to all snow around dark. By the time morning comes around on Monday, the storm system should be pulling away, or very close to being finished in our area. Total accumulations will be on the order of a coating to 2" to the S & E of I-95 thru central NJ. In the city itself, 1-2". Just N & W of the city, 1-3" with some isolated totals around 5".
So, in keeping this short, I will again point out that this is not a big storm at all, at least for our area in particular. Max snowfall accumulations in the area will be around 5" just N & W of the city, but should be limited to only a few areas. There is the chance that as a vortmax rounds the base of the upper trough on Monday, another wave of low pressure could form along the frontal boundary, but at this time I don't see this is being a big deal either. At worst with the latter scenario, some intermittent snows could linger in the area on Monday with little additional accumulations. If there is a need to update later tonight, I will do so, but I feel very confident in this forecast at this time. Take care and drive safely in our first wintry weather event of the season.
S.B.
