February 1, 2001
Once again, we find ourselves at the crossroads as far as weather pattern evolution is concerned. Ensemble members are saying we are on the brink of a severe pattern change including several shots of Arctic air poised at the Northeast, while many of the operational models say otherwise and keep the flow progressive with just a few zonal troughs pressing through every few days. The upcoming weather can't necessarily be defined as 'a forecaster's nightmare', but rather an episode that will separate the men from the boys.
February is upon us, and no better way to bring in the new month than with a chance for a few wet flakes tomorrow afternoon and evening as a clipper system presses Eastward through the Great Lakes. Normally with a clipper system, the best band of precip sets up in a 100 mile swath to the North of the low pressure area. That will again be the case, but precip to the South of the low will be enhanced by 1)an area of UVV's (vertical velocities) and 2)a weak area of low pressure off the East Coast. As for our forecast for Friday, mostly cloudy with a snow/rain shower or two in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures above the surface will be cold enough for snow, but with the ground so warm from the past few days, it could help warm the atmosphere just enought that whatever falls will be rain. So, just as good a chance that any showers that fall will be either rain or snow. Highs Friday around 40.
The system will pull off to the Northeast Friday night, yielding clearing skies. Lows in the low to mid 20s. Saturday will be a rude reminder that we are still in the middle part of winter. Conditions will be mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. Highs around 35. Sunday will start off partly cloudy, but clouds will gradually increase throughout the day. Highs in the lower 40s.
Next system that needs to be monitored will be an area of low pressure tracking Eastward just North of the Canadian/US border. Many folks are stating that this system will be weak and not a real player in our weather aside from a cold frontal passage on Monday. Based on operational guidance, one could concur with that statement. However, one needs only to go as far as the ensemble members and this evening's EC (European guidance) to see that a 'potential' still exists for this system to redevelop along the Hatteras Coast. The majority of guidance has trended toward a weaker trough with less energy in the souther jet, yielding nothing more than a frontal passage with a shower/flurry or two Sunday night and Monday. On the other hand, certain guidance suggests a deep enough trough to spin up an area of low pressure off the coast Sunday night. At this time, even if the system redevelops, signs are that the trough will be progressive enough to just clip coastal areas before zipping Northeastward. The is really no bocking mechanism in place that would imply a Northward track, so will hedge with the weaker solution for the time being. Monday will be variably cloudy with a chance for snow or rain showers. High Monday around 40. Things clear out on Tuesday with partly sunny skies but a touch cooler. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40.
So, a few snow/rain showers likely Friday afternoon and evening. Clearing out for Saturday and Sunday with increasing clouds in the afternoon Sunday. A clipper will swing through the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday with a few snow/rain showers possible. Still needs to be monitored, especially for coastal areas as the system will try to redevelop off the Hatteras Coast. Regardless, will be a fast mover and things clear out for Tuesday. Next threat of wintry weather middle-end of next week. No huge Arctic blasts yet, but the pattern change is underway. Take care.
