February 12, 2001
Sleet and freezing rain has been falling intermittently throughout the area since around 8:30PM. Any precip will taper to plain rain showers after midnight and will be out of the area by daybreak. Guidance is once again somewhat divergent in regards to the weather for this week. One needs only to glance at numerical predictions to see that the models are not handling the pattern change very well. Rather than get very specific with the forecast for the upcoming week, will provide more of a general outlook in tonight's discussion.
For the remainder of the night, sleet showers will change to rain showers around midnight and will move out of the area before daybreak. Overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Tuesday will be partly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Clouds will increase early Wednesday in response to a wave of low pressure moving by to our North and West. A period of rain and showers is likely to develop during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be warm enough across our area for any precipitation to fall as plain rain. Highs Wednesday in the upper 40s to near 50. Showers will continue into the night on Thursday in response to a cold front pressing through the region. Skies will partially clear on Thursday with a high around 40.
An area of low pressure will be moving Northeastward out of the lower Ohio Valley during the day on Friday. This is where guidance gets a bit sketchy with the details. It appears that a frontal boundary will get hung-up over the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, waves of low pressure try to ride up along the front. Models generally struggle with a setup of this sort, but each passing wave would likely be a bit farther South. The GGEM for instance brings one wave of low pressure through just to our South during the day on Friday providing the area with more rain and showers. As it passes by, temperatures fall behind it. Meanwhile, another wave is developing in the Western Gulf of Mexico and tries to become the 'main' low during the day on Saturday. As it moves Northeastward out of the Gulf, cold air continues to seep in at the lower levels while warmer air overrides the cold dome. By Saturday afternoon, the GGEM clips our area with a moderate frozen 'event'.
So, alot of questions remain for late week. Will go with rain and showers on Friday with the high in the mid to upper 40s. Saturday, a chance for a wintry mix with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
As stated above, alot of questions in the forecast past Thursday. Guidance is becoming increasingly colder for the region for late-week, but am not completely sold on the fact that cold air makes it as far South as the Mason-Dixon line. More details as the week progresses.
Again, any frozen precip changing to rain showers around midnight and moving out of the area before daybreak. Partly sunny Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Increasing clouds Wednesday with periods of rain and showers especially in the afternoon and night. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Partly cloudy Thursday with highs around 40. Rain and showers again likely on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Cloudy and cooler Saturday with the chance for a wintry mix. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Take care.
