February 15, 2003
We received about 2 inches of snow Friday night, right in tune with what was being forecast. No surprises today in that guidance is literally all over the place in regards to track of redeveloping low pressure on Sunday. There is basically a 50/50 split in tems of whether the low tracks Northward right up and along the coast or Northeastward about 150 miles off the coast. What this spells for us in terms of apparent weather are two extremes, more-or-less. On the one hand, we have guidance showing a close to the coast track giving us snow Sunday night but changing that snow to sleet pellets and perhaps even plain rain on Monday with accumulations being relatively minor except for the travel headaches from frozen variety. The other side tracks the storm a bit farther east and hammers us with nearly 2 feet of snow!!! While I think it is safe to say that either of these scenarios are possible, I am not sure that it would be wise to take the middle of the road here.
Simply put, I am leaning towards a turnover to something other than snow at some point later Sunday night. The reason is, even though there is arctic high pressure to the North, it will be heading off the coast and the Easterly flow associated with the high and the Northern edge of the low will continue to erode the colder temperatures, especially above the surface.
While there is not a whole lot more to say, I caution those folks that are still sold on a major event for the PHL area. While I do believe we see some snowfall Sunday night, the devil is in the details in regards to how much and when any changeover will occur. At this point, it seems we will have at least "plowable" snow before we see any change. Keep in mind, there is still a 50% chance that this stays all snow, though I am leaning towards the changeover. If trends West continue, we could even see plain rain for the majority of the event, though at this time I believe that scenario is slim, yet still possible.
So, in short, before running out to stockpile for the worst storm in 7 years, take heed, listen to your local forecasts from the NWS, and stay abreast on how conditions are changing. Another update around 2AM Sunday. Take care!
S.B.
