February 16, 2003
11:55AM Update in Green
What can I say here? I am simply AMAZED at the data that is pouring in at this time!! Even with the quicker onset that I expected, I did not expect even close to the 4" we have received from this system already. While I will be stranded at work (yes, someone needs to feed the folks at the hotel), there should not be any further updates required after this brief one. While I will do my best at gaining access to the web, I cannot make any promises.
Moderate snow will continue today and become heavy during the late afternoon and especially overnight into Monday morning. As with any major system like this, there is still the possibility, albeit not very huge, that there is a turnover to sleet or freezing rain at some point later tonight into early Monday.
The only adjustment that is needed with the forecast is to bump up the totals again to the tune of 15-30" of snow for our area!! I would not be the least bit surprised if someone very near actually exceeds 3'. While I think our record (30.7") from the Blizzard of '96 should stand, many other places may exceed their snowfall totals from that storm system.
Near Blizzard conditions are likely tonight as winds become gusty and temperatures hover in the mid to upper teens. Again, if you do not need to be out, stay home please! Leave the roadways safe for those of us who need to get into work to assist the public. There will likely be no more updates as I stated due to lack of a computer, but I will make a good effort to gain access to one. Looks like this is the one we've been waiting for the past 7 years! Take care and if you can, take lots of pics and video footage for the grandkids. We'll be talking about this one for many many years!
No two ways about it, the Delaware Valley is in for what could amount to the heaviest snowfall in 7 years. Total accumulations for Southeast PA (Delaware County in particular), will range from 12-20" of snow by the time it ends late on Monday.
Looking at current data, precipitation associated with low pressure in the Mississippi Valley is beginning to head Northward once again over the past few hours and is as close as Central Delaware and the Tidewater Area and Eastern Shores of Maryland. So, it definitely appears that snow will begin falling much ahead of schedule in our area. By the time noon rolls around, we should be just getting into some steady light snows, and things will be going downhill from there.
The culprit for the nasty weather is a storm located in the Lower Mississippi Valley. This storm has already been responsible for severe weather in parts of the Central Gulf States.
As the storm system tries to head Northward into the cold air it will be blocked and forced to go around the southside of high pressure and redevelop itself along the NC Coastline. Thus, not only will this cause a slow jog with our storm system, but it should also keep it fairly close to the coast giving our area several hours of moderate and likely heavy snow Sunday night.
One thing I must caution on with this system. As with any storm, it's tough to get a handle on certain temperature profiles in the atmosphere. Hence, prolonged Easterly Winds could quickly erode mid level cold air that the models do not pick up on very well. However, there are strong signals from guidance that a change to sleet is still possible, if not likely late Sunday night into morning on Monday. That could of course cut into or snowfall totals significantly, though I feel 12-20" of snow is a decent range even if we should turnover for a period. Any change to plain rain is almost completely out of the question at this point also.
Along with prolonged Easterly Winds, beside erosion of temps aloft comes beach erosion and coastal flooding. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Watch for all coastal communities in NJ. There is also an already abnormally high astronomical tide which also increases the risk of tidal flooding. While storm pressure wont be that intense, there is quite a battle going on between a 1048mb High Pressure area and what will be approximately a 1001mb or so storm system.
While this has all the makings of a classic storm, one for the record books, it's still hard to say who exactly gets the 'bullseye', but chances of snowfall in excess of 2 FEET are not only possible, but likely somehwere in the Middle Atlantic by the time all is said and done. Guidance is keying in on an area from DCA to just North of PHL, so things could still get even more interesting here, though I still suspect totals will fall somewhere in the middle of the 12-20" range by the time the snowfall ends late Monday.
So again, snow starts mid-morning Sunday. By noon-1PM steadier light snow is upon us. By late afternon/early evening, moderate snow has already encompassed the entire area. High temp Sunday in the mid 20s, thus higher snowfall ratios. Between 7PM Sunday and 7AM Monday, our area should see it's heaviest snowfall totals, though I'm not sure it get's "heavy", but more a steady "moderate" snow that just piles up through the night. This time period is critical though. If there is no change to sleet, I would expect to see totals around 14-20" here with isolated totals near 2' closeby. With a prolonged change to sleet, I would still say around a foot of snow with about a half inch sleet on top.
Conditions will be going downhill as the day goes on Sunday. Unless an emergency, I would recommened just staying in and enjoy the long holiday weekend. Some folks may not be getting out on Tuesday either! Another brief update around noon Sunday. Take care!
S.B.
