February 25, 2001
A period of freezing rain and/or sleet likely tonight before changing over to plain rain before dawn, then all bets are off as we look ahead to a 'potential' snowmaker around midweek. Light precip is just beginning to break out in our region and will likely remain as a wintry mix through part of the overnight hours. Current temps are just below freezing, but temperatures will rise to above freezing by dawn. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain, possibly heavy at times with the chance for a few rumbles of thunder as a cold front approaches the area. Highs Sunday near 50. Partly sunny skies prevail on Monday with breezy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Tuesday will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 40s.
Differences of opinion develop between the models during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. At noon today, things were looking quite interesting for Wednesday in terms of wintry weather. Specifically, the naval model bombed out an area of low pressure off the NC Coast and gave parts of the mid Atlantic a large snowstorm, possibly blizzard conditions for some. Other models agreed to an extent, but not quite the same intensity. As the late day runs rolled in, it appears most guidance (except the ETA which has outperformed other guidance recently) has backed off the snow potential. However, I am not. A logical forecaster will not bounce back and forth with each successive run of the models, but will wait to see a few continuous runs with the same solution before jumping ship. Through this evening, we have had a few runs that featured a snow potential for the mid Atlantic, and just because 80% of guidance says no go suddenly, that is no reason to throw out the snow potential. Differences arise with the speed of a shortwave moving across the Canadian border and a piece of energy being ejected out of the Southwest. Given the fact the ETA has performed well lateley, coupled with the fact that generally, the models 'lose' a system in the 3 day range only to 'regain' it later leads me to believe there is still a good potential for some snow in our area during the Wednesday-Thursday time period. Will go with increasing clouds Wednesday with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. A chance of snow early Thursday, else partly sunny with highs in the mid 30s.
So, a very touch and go forecast for the week starting tonight. Freezing rain and sleet has already begun falling in Delaware County and will continue periodically through dawn before changing over to plain rain. Periods of rain Sunday, possible heavy with maybe a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. Highs around 50. Partly sunny and breezy Monday, highs in the mid to upper 40s. Partly sunny Tuesday with highs in the upper 40s. Increasing clouds Wednesday with a chance of snow developing during the day. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow early Thursday, else partly sunny with highs in the mid 30s. Again, it won't take many changes with upper level features for a totally different forecast midweek. Trough is sharper=larger snow, flow is more zonal=out to sea. Leaning towards a light snow event for the time being. Will have a better idea by Sunday night. For now, take care.
