February 26, 2005
Just a quick post today as busy times are ahead. The potential for a decent snowfall on Monday is becoming more and more clear, though there are a few flies on the ointment that need to be worked out if this is going to happen.
First problem is the fact that the models are very dry in regards to moisture associated with this system. However, with experience on my side, I must disacard many of the models' rendition of precip as based solely on Water Vapor and satellite imagery, this system is already gaining juiuce down in Southern Texas and the Northern Gulf of Mexico. So, if this trend holds, the system will have ample moisture to work with regardless of what guidacne is showing at this time.
Secondly, the system is not forecast to 'phase' until the storm redevelops off of the SE Coast and the surface refelcetion is North of say NYC. This should keep the storm moving relatively quickly as it passes our area Monday keeping snow totals in the significant range, but not biblical proportions as some folks are suggesting. Yes, this will be a major storm moving out of the Gulf, the likes of which we haven't seen in several years, but this is no '93 Superstorm folks.
Finally, once the storm undergoes bombogenesis off the coast, a massive dry slot will develop and quickly cutoff precip from the South on Northward like a light switch. Of course, this is after several inches have already fallen across the area.
Winds will be fierce out of the Northeast and possible near-blizzard conditions will develop for a time on Monday.
However, as always, there is a chance that, especially given the time of year, enough warm air gets worked into the gyre that a change to sleet and/or rain could occur. This would obviously keep snowfall accumulations down.
Still alot of details to hash out, but right now, the trend is clearly towards a significant storm affecting the region on Monday in the form of snow and amounts could be above 4" with the *potential* for near a foot of snow across the region. More data is rolling in as I type this and I see the trends are looking even stronger. Will update again either late tonight or Sunday as time permits.
S.B.
