February 27, 2001
Potential light snows for Wednesday look slim to none, and slim just left town, but guidance goes into major storm potential mode for late weekend and early next week. Really not a whole lot to discuss in the short range, and for that matter, not a whole lot of details for the medium range potential either at this time as models are somewhat diverse with their solutions. Regardless, every model at 0Z Tuesday showed the potential for a significant, perhaps major, winter storm for some parts of the East. Let's try to get through this discussion as painlessly as possible.
Tuesday will feature increasing clouds with highs in the upper 40s. A chance for a few flurries or snow showers Tuesday night with lows in the upper 20s. No accumulation expected here, but parts of Delaware, specifically the DelMarVa may see some light accumulations. Chance for flurries Wednesday morning then partly sunny with highs around 40. Partly sunny Thursday with highs around 40. Partly sunny Friday with highs in the low 40s. Partly sunny Saturday with highs around 45. Then the fun begins.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Western Gulf early in the weekend. This is our 'potential' troublemake for late weekend or early week. Most guidance tries to carve out quite a deep trough a the jet stream level, allowing the intensifying area of low pressure to move Northeastward. Rather than getting into specific details this far in advance, will say that some gudance paints quite a stormy picture in our area for the aforementioned timeframe. The low looks 'stacked' at virtually all levels, implying a very well developed storm. That also implies rapid deepening of the low as it pulls out of the Gulf. Both the EC and the MRF go negative tilt with the upper level trough allowing it to slow to a crawl or even retrograde slightly as it moves towards the Hatteras Coast. This is important because these models are obviously keying in on this feature which would mean a possibly stalled Nor'Easter which could paralyze parts of the East that fall in it's snowy path. Well, already went way too far into detail, so will leave it at that for now.
All in all, pretty safe to say winter is not over and likely has a few tricks up it's sleeve for next week. Check back early Wednesday for a large update.
