February 27, 2005 (5:00PM)
Well, not a whole lot has changed since last discussion other than the solutions being offered from computer guidance is showing increasing support for an all snow event in our neck of the woods on Monday and into Tuesday. Right to the lowdown on this upcoming system:
An area of low pressure currently located just to the West of Tampa is beginning to deepen quite rapidly and this area of storminess will track Northeastward, crossing over the Sunshine State in the next few hours and will emerge in the Gulf Stream as a very potent storm gyre. As is evident on Radar, this sytem has and continues to gather alot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and will also tap into the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic for additional moisture.
As the storm system hugs the coastline and heads North-Northeastward tonight on into Monday, snow will overspread the region from the South by noon. Winds will become quite strong out of the East and the Northeast, especially near the immediate coastline with gusts nearing 50mph by the height of the storm late Monday. Coastal flooding and heavy beach erosion are likely.
For us in Delaware County, snow will begin light but will increase significantly as the afternoon progresses. Snowfall by dark should be near 4" with driving conditions becoming quite treacherous as per the statement issued a short time ago by the National Weather Service in their Winter Storm Warning for the entire region. The meteorological dynamics associated with this storm are extremely impressive given the nature of this beast and we cannot rule out the likelihood of thundersnows across many parts of the region as snowfall rates will near 3-4" per hour for a period between say 5PM and midnight Monday. Blizzard conditions are possible for parts of the area and I would not be surprised to see the National Weather Service out of Mount Holly mention this in their next package.
During the height of the storm Monday evening, there will be quite a battle going on just above the surface as the storm continues to undergo bombogenesis and 850mb temps fight to push Eastward under the vertically stacked gyre and the baroclinic zone tries to push Westward due to the strong feed off of the Atlantic. Snow could mix with or change to sleet he in Delco for a period Monday evening which could keep snowfall accumulations down just a touch, but the trend on guidance has been to keep this boundary East of I-95 and keep the sleet at bay.
Snow lightens up late Monday night, but as the upper low over the Great Lakes plows Southeastward across the region, snowfall may again be enhanced during the day on Tuesday, albeit not as heavy as what we will contend with Monday night.
Accumulations look as follows:
In Delco, expect around 4" of snow to have accumulated by the evening commute. Snowfall rates will intensify and become heavy from 5PM thru about midnight on Monday. Accumulations by midnight on Monday between 7-14". Snow as mentioned above may be enhanced early Tuesday and continue for a period which will add to our accumulations. Right now, sticking with a general 7-14" snowfall in our county with the *potential* for near 20" by the time all is said and done on Tuesday afternoon.
Tornadoes are currently ripping across parts of Florida as this storm is just beginning to develop and obviously, this can be seen a sign of a very intense storm system (remember March '93?). This storm will not rival that storm in regards to barometric pressures, but snowfall amounts for some could be matched. More later . . .
S.B.
