February 3, 2001
An active weather pattern has officially kicked off with a barrage of weather in the Northeast on Friday. Wind gusts to 33 mph accompanied a mix of rain and snow showers across Delaware County in the afternoon as a cold front passed through the region. Binghamton, NY heard thunder accompanying the 2.5" of snow accumulation, and many other areas in New England had reported 1-3" of snow with several wind gust reports above 35 mph across the entire Northeastern US. Perhaps the bigger story now that the system has pulled off to the North and East is the cold air it has helped usher in. Temperatures dropped close to 25 degrees in a 6 hour span this evening and are currently in the mid 20s across the area. Perhaps another big story is the storm system developing off the Southeast Coast late Sunday. As we have been discussing since earlier in the week, this system may decide to play a factor in our weather by Sunday night. Beyond that as we approach mid/late week, yet another round of wet weather appears headed our way. Anything but a quiet pattern at the moment, and as brand new long range information rolls in, it appears to remain quite active for at least the next six to ten days across the continental US.
The remainder of the night will be clear and breezy with wind chills around zero through the morning. Overnight low around 23. Saturday will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid 30s. Winds diminishing throughout the day. Saturday night will be partly cloud with lows in the mid to upper 20s.
As we head into Sunday, temperatures rebound a bit during the day. As for the ongoing weather, a piece of energy associated with a Clipper system near the Great Lakes, will be diving into the Ohio Valley. As the trough begins to dig South, an area of weakness in the atmosphere left behind from an old frontal boundary, will be the focal point for an area of low pressure to develop during the day on Sunday. This is expected to happen just off the Southeast Coast near South Carolina late Sunday morning/early afternoon. As for apparent weather in our area, increasing clouds during the day. Highs around 40.
By Sunday night, an area of weak low pressure is positioned just off the North Carolina coastline. Meanwhile, another vortmax is beginning to round the base of the upper level trough allowing for better development of the low off the coast. All the while, the relatively weak low is loading up with fair amount of moisture from the Atlantic and is starting spread precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic. Looks like it will start off as snow in our area, but guidance is still diverse with exact track. For our weather, Sunday night should feature a good chance for light snow beginning after dark, *perhaps* turning to rain for a period later at night. Lows Sunday in the lower 30s.
By Monday morning, the area of low pressure is sitting about 75-100 miles East of Cape May, NJ and is beginning to dump some decent precip over most of New Jersey and Eastern PA. Going to take at least two more suites of guidance to pinpoint a reasonable rain/snow line, but whatever form it falls as, precip will be moderate to heavy across the aforementioned areas. Right now, hedging toward the colder, mostly snow scenario mainly due to the speed of the upper low pressing East. That factor should keep the system off the coast as it passes by our area, although maybe not be a large distance. Will go with snow and/or rain throughout much of the day perhaps heavy in the morning. Any precip ending as flurries in the evening. Some snow accumulation possible. High Monday in the upper 30s.
Things clear out on Monday night giving way to partly cloudy skies on Tuesday. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Wednesday will also be partly cloudy with the high around 40.
As we head into Thursday, another area of low pressure is set to bring stormy weather to parts of the East. A piece of energy is poised to be moving across the deep South associated with the upper level shortwave. This system will likely bring a barrage of weather to the US during the mid/late week period. Parts of the South including Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri should begin to feel the affects of a nasty winter storm sometime Wednesday. Exact track is very much up in the air at this point, but it is becoming clear that a winter storm of significance will affect most of the Eastern 2/3 of the country from middle to late part of the week. Could be a fairly decent severe outbreak in parts of the South, heavy snow to the North and West of the low, a good threat of ice for some, and drenching rains for much of the Southeast. More on this later.
So, lots to talk about for the next several days. Cold air on tap for Saturday with slightly rebounding temps for Sunday. Clouds increase Sunday with snow likely after dark. Snow and/or rain (hedging towards the colder) will continue through the day on Monday and will taper to flurries late in the day. Tuesday and Wednesday look seasonable under partly cloudy skies. Then all eyes turn to mid/late week as a large winter storm will likely sweep through the nation. More on that as the week progresses. Will be out of town (barring a major winter storm) from Sunday night through Tuesday night, so will continue to post through Sunday midday for now. Take care.
