February 4, 2001
Winter returned to the region on Saturday, with most areas in Southeast PA only reaching the low to mid 30s for highs. However, the weather has nastier things in store for parts of the Northeast during the next 48 hours.
Winter storm watches have already been posted for parts of the area in lieu of a coastal storm which will be developing off the SC Coast early Sunday. As a matter of fact, moisture is already beginning to load up over parts of the Southeast. This was underdone by guidance thus far, although this may just be a reflection of a shortwave moving through the Southeast and off the coast. Will have to watch this over the next few hours to see what role this will play in the evolution of our storm system.
Clouds have begun to overspread the region, but this is not associated with the coastal storm. The area of cloudiness is associated with weakness developing ahead of a clipper system in the uppper midwest. Partly cloudy the remainder of the night with lows in the low to mid 20s. Should actually see a few pokes of sunlight Sunday morning, but clouds will continue to lower during the day in association with both the clipper and the coastal low headed in our direction. Highs Sunday around 40.
Thinking right now is that light snow will break out around midnight on Sunday. However, the area of precip in the SE at this hour needs to monitored for any Northward advance. These types of systems are notorious for bringing precip into the region before progged. Will keep an eye on things over the next several hours to see if there are any significant changes.
Snow will increase in intensity late Sunday night and into Monday morning. The rain/snow line will be edging it's way North and West towards Philadelphia, and it is possible that our area may change over to rain and/or sleet for a period on Monday. That will have a large impact on snowfall totals. Guidance is generally split in regards to the rain/snow line, but I am still hedging towards the colder solution for Delaware County. A good divider right now looks to be I-95, with snow to the North and west and as far South and East as Millville and mainly rain points South and East of there.
As for possible accumulation, points just to the West of the rain/snow line will see a good round of heavy wet snow from this system. Guidance throws down anywhere from .4" to a little over 1" liquid equivalent. Based on curent observations over the Southeast, will say that 1" liquid for someone in the Northeast is not unlikely. However, still tough to pinpoint exactly which specific area gets snow and which area gets rain in regards to the Delaware Valley. Again, hedging with the colder solutions at the moment, so will say if there is a changeover to rain for us, it will be short-lived. As always, the rain/snow line will be the deciding factor in how much snowfall the area receives. Will say that up to 6"+ are possible for some areas in E PA. Highs Monday in the upper 30s.
Any precip tapers to flurries and snow showers Monday night. Low around 30. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with the high in the lower 40s. Wednesday will be mostly sunny early, but clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of the next storm system approaching from the West. Could be another round of nasty weather late in the week, but am hedging towards a warm solution. Should prove to be quite a winter weather maker across much of the country however. More on that later.
So, clouds will thicken during the day Sunday. Light snow will break out around midnight and increase in intensity as we head into the morning on Monday. I-95 should be a decent rain/snow divider, but again don't think it makes it as far North and West as Milleville, NJ. Snow will taper to flurries Monday night. Total accumulations for our area will depend on where the rain/snow line sets up on Monday. Six inches or more is not out of the question for parts of Eastern PA, but am generally being conservative for SE PA and would think we average about 2-5" when all is said and done. Also need to keep an eye on radar over the next few hours as precip in the SE is more than progged for this time. Will try and fine-tune accumulation totals around midday Sunday.
1:10PM Sunday update
Things still looking good for our storm tonight and Monday. Guidance has once again done a flip-flop with the ETA trending East and the AVN trending West. Odd given the ETA has a bias for placing coastals too far west and the AVN just the opposite. Still hedging with the slightly colder solution for Delaware County points North and West. The only thing that has really changed is precipitation amounts. They are generally a bit higher this AM per guidance. Would think 4-8" is not out of the question for parts of our area if no changeover occurs. Will fine-tune things later tonight. Off to work.
