February 5, 2002
Parts of the area saw a period of light snow showers and flurries today with no accumulation across Delaware County. The cuprit was a redeveloping area of low pressure well off the coast in response to the passage of an Arctic boundary. Yes, we are back into the wintertime feel, although I'm not so sure we ever arrived yet this winter. Expect highs in the mid 30s tomorrow across the area with partly cloudy skies and blustery winds. Other than that, there really has not been much to talk about. Someone started a rumor that parts of the Northeast were going to get a snowstorm on Thursday, but after glancing at data, there appears no reason to believe the hype at this time.
An area of 500mb vorticity will be diving into the Southern Plains during the day Tuesday and will close off near the 'Four Corners' region. As this piece of energy closes off, it will continue to meander slightly North of East into the Gulf States region during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, there is plenty of moisture starting to build in the Texas region as the surface low reorganizes near the South Texas Coast and Western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a separate piece of upper energy will be riding along the Northern branch of the jet slightly South of East
parallel to the Canadian/US border. Earlier in the week, there were signs that the two vort maxes would join somewhere over the East allowing for a storm system to head Northward from the Gulf States region. Now, it appears that the northern flow will be progressive enough to not allow for much in the way of amplification/interaction between vortices. Along with that thinking lies the fact that guidance has been considerably warmer the past few runs in regards to our area. So, in short I see one of three solutions in terms of apparent weather. 1)Cloudy and cool 2)light snow showers/flurries or 3)light snow/mix to rain. Scenario 1 seems most plausible at the moment lacking any interaction between shortwaves. One would suspect the low to follow a path from 125 miles South of Houston-->50-75 miles South of New Orleans, LA-->Pensacola, FL-->75 miles Southeast of Macon, GA-->Charleston, SC-->50-100 miles South of Cape Hatteras, NC and finally out to sea in a Northeasterly manner.
So, at this time, there doesn't seem to be a big threat for the region on Thursday. Things could change as always, but it appears that guidance (save ETA) has come around to a viable solution on the next storm system. Beyond that, there appears to be another 'threat' later in the weekend. It does seem that the mean trough will re-establish itself in the East by early next week, so expect another shot of cold air at the very least late in the weekend or early next week. That's it for now. If any updates are needed, they will appear by Wednesday afternoon.
S.B.
