February 5, 2003
I must say, the events unfolding for the potential snowfall for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe have been nothing short of....well....insane. In the past 24 hours alone, guidance has gone from forecasts of heavy heavy snow for the Philadelphia area, to almost nothing at all in the way of measurable snow.
The culprit is a very strong jet max over the Southern United States. Riding along the jet is a weak disturbance which will continue to move Eastward across the Gulf States. This disturbance will redevelop off the Southeast Coastline late Thursday night. At that time, light snowfall should develop across the area. However, this will NOT be a major snowstorm by any stretch of the imagination. Do not be fooled by the NWS postings of Winter Storm Warnings.
So what am I calling for exactly. Well, right now it could go one of two ways: First, the redeveloping system will remain weak and be shuttled Northeastward in respone to very strong upper level winds. Second scenario is that the storm redevelops much quicker than expected and spreads heavier snow into our region much sooner allowing for greater accumulations. Right now, the second scenario seems to be an outlier as the majority of NWS guidance points towards scenario one. This is not to say that we wont pick up a period of moderate snow early Friday, because we likely will, but overall, this will be a very minor storm system that will do nothing more than hinder people's early morning travels on Friday. Expect anywhere from a half inch to 3 inches with some isolated 4 inch totals just South of the city. Highs in the lower 30's Friday.
Again, light snow breaks out Thursday night. Snow may become moderate for a period early Friday. Accumulations in the area ranging from a half inch to 3 inches total snowfall. Highs in the low 30s. Another update available very early Thursday or around midday. Take care!
S.B.
