February 8, 2003
Discussion based on 2/8/03 0Z data
Next 12-24 hours are critical if we are going to see a storm of
magnitude early next week IMO. As energy dives South and Southeastward into
California in response to the the block off the Northwast Coastline, it will
be interesting to see 1) how much energy emerges and begins to head
eastward, 2) how much of a 'kick' the large vortex near the Big Island can
give to the s/w diving into the Southwest to helps it's push eastward, and
3) just how many s/w clear the Rockies (GFS actually has close to 6 mini
areas of vorticity at 48hrs!). This string of events leading up to early
next week has trouble written on it from a forecasting standpoint. With only
the complexities at the middle atmosphere mentioned above, one can see just
why we have such a vast range in guidance solutions for the Mon-Tues
timeframe.
For example, the GGEM, while not overly zealous at H5, actually develops a
mega-bomb with a 26mb drop in 12 hours (72-84hr period)!!
GGEM 72hr
GGEM 84hr
While the actual low is just out of range for a major hit, the evidence
is there from other some other models tonight as well that there will be
phasing between the Northern and Southern jet branches (and potentially a
triple-phase).
Note how the GFS phases earlier, and this goes well with the GGEM in regards
to a significant bombogenetic episode in a span of 12 hours with a closer to
the coast solution because of the earlier phasing:
GFS 66hr
GFS 78hr
On the other hand, the ETA is barely a phase and much faster with the
Southern system:
ETA 60hr
Thus, no system to really speak of and the Northern low remains the dominant
with little or no redevelopment.
And the NOGAPS:
NGP 60hr
NGP 72hr
NGP 84hr
It generally matches the GFS, especially at H5. The storm's weakness and
progressiveness is a typical characteristic of the NGP, so not surprises
there.
Again, just heads up that once we see what happens with the energy diving
into the Southwest,
we will know how it may or may not interact with the Northern Jet.
Western US
(also note the huge low to the very left of the image, time sensitive, that
is going to give a kick to the s/w near the coast of Southern CA)
Seems we have a somewhat wide range of solutions until then, but the
potential for something major is definitely still there.
S.B.
