February 9, 2003
Monday snow event will prove to be minor, especially in comparison to the 7" of snow we received Thursday night and into early Friday last week. Light snow will begin during or shortly after the morning rush hour on Monday and will continue during the day. Snow will become moderate for a 2-3 hours period Monday afternoon and the snow will taper off to flurries before 9:00PM. Total accumulation ranging for 2-4" for the city. High temp on Monday in the mid 30s.
The culprit is an area of low pressure that will develop along the baroclinic boundary off the NC coast in response to Northern and Southern Jet energy undergoing a phase. Normally when we speak of phasing jet streams, we would be discussing the potential for a major storm system. The saving grace with this particular 'event' will be the phasing ocurring a little bit too late and also the strength of the Southern Jet Stream winds which will actually force low pressure to remain off the coast and head NE as opposed to due North. In short, this system will be a fairly rapid mover even though there are subtle signs that the upper trough will tilt negative once phasing takes place.
So, expect some light snows on Monday, nothing major. The morning rush will be saved and in all actuality, the PM ride home should not be 'too' bad. This time of the year, the sun angle will help keeps the roads mainly wet during daytime hours unless of course we are experiencing very heavy snows for an extended period. Expect no more than 2-4" total snowfall with this next system. I'll be the first to admit that I was hesitant in keeping these snow totals low after the surprises that the last storm brought with it, but this system appears much better forecasted by guidance models, so confidence is average at best. Another update late tonight *if necessary*, but based on current obs, satellite and radar data, the developing system appears to be matching the progs quite nicely. At the very least, expect another update before noon on Monday. Take care!
S.B.
