February 9, 1999
Media outlets and new stations in the area have begun to mention the *possibility* of an
event this weekend, and right they should. This is the first legitimate possibility for a
decent snowstorm in our area in almost two years! Let's dive right into the details.
Through Friday, temperatures will continue an upward climb for daytime highs peaking out
in the mid 60's by Friday. Weatherwise, rain, some of it heavy and even the chance of a
thunderstorm is likely on Friday as a strong cold front pushes through our region. Behind
the front, Saturday will be much colder compared to recent weather, with highs remaining
in the 30's. Thereafter, things get interesting. Models are still up-in-the-air about the
potential for a snowstorm this weekend, but it is looking more likely as time moves
forward. The Canadian model has sided with the NOGAPS and even to the MRF
somewhat by sweeping a powerful 500mb trough through the region and prgressively off
the coast. This equals any potential storm affecting only fish in the Atlantic. Now, on the
other hand, tonight's run of the EC paints a different picture than it's previous run.
Biggest difference is it's placement of the low much farther to the east. This would equal
the chance of our area getting skirted with snowfall, albeit not as big a deal as last night.
However, the NWS and NCEP graphics paint a picture very similair to last night's EC run
by developing a secondary low just off the VA capes and deepening it rapidly. This would
spell a significant snowfall for our area. Now that I've gotten the models out of the way,
here are my thoughts, and I will try to keep them short. Friday will feature rain, possily
heavy for a period, with a wind out of the SW warming the area to about 60-65 degrees. As
the cold front pushes through, a wave will develop off the DelMarVa peninsula. However,
I feel that the track it takes will be a compromise between last night's EC run and
tonight's. That is, N/NE, just off of the coast. It will move somewhat slowly, but I don't see
a storm where we would measure snow in the feet. Rather, with a track like this, I would
expect a decent period of snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, and then tapering
to snow showers on Sunday. This is only a preliminary thought. We are not even into the
short range period yet, so check back tomorrow!
