March 1, 2001
Not a whole heck of a lot to discuss tonight overall. Short term still looks quiet, medium range still looks questionable. Guidance tonight had all sorts of different solutions for the potential late weekend system. More on that below.
In the short range, Thursday will be partly sunny with highs in the low 40s. Clouds increase Thursday night as a cold front approaches the area. Chance for a few flurries late with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Partly sunny on Friday with highs around 40. Then the major questions begin to arise.
Guidance this evening has diverged on a solution for the weekend. Suffice to say, no model is nearly as strong with the weekend storm as depicted yesterday. This can, and will likely change as we approach the event. The AVN family still develops a nice area of low pressure over the Western Gulf during the day on Friday, but winds up scooting it off the SE coast and out to sea late in the weekend. On the other hand, the European UKMET has a sheared low moving NEward on Saturday from the Gulf giving our area a decent snowfall, but not major in any respect. By Sunday, it has cleared out. The GGEM has nothing more than a weak frontal passage moving through the area during the day on Sunday. Will save some time and trouble by not going through all the specific details tonight at upper levels. Major differences arise with an upper low over SE Canada during the period. Majority of guidance is tending to keep this flat, hence keeping the flow progressive across the N Mid Atlantic. If the upper low were to retrograde or align itself more SW-NE, then the storm has a chance to move farther North. One local TV station seemed to go off the deep-end yesterday calling for the worst storm in ten years for the Delaware Valley. Don't see the need to be quite that drastic at this point. Potential still exists, but as of now, majority of guidance keeps the bulk of the precip South. Still thinking this is more of a central and Southern Mid-Atlantic event than a Northeast Snowstorm. This doesn't necessarily mean I feel snow will dominate farther South, just that the bulk of precip wall fall there. This also doesn't mean I don't think we see any snow out of this system. Plenty of time to fine-tune things as solutions will probably change quite a few more times before the weekend. At this point, I don't see a "historic" event as some local media has dubbed it. For that matter, not one model has given our area substantial snow yet on their forecasts. Again, a word of caution, guidance has failed numerous times this winter with storm track predictions that have ended up farther North. At this time, will still stick with the middle of the road solution and some snow possible at some point between Saturday and Monday, but NOT a major event by any stretch of the imagination. Yes, the potential still exists for some areas to get plastered, especially into VA, but I have yet to be swayed in the direction of a "huge" storm for our area.
So, in short, guidance struggling with blocking pattern and upper low over SE Canada. That upper low is crucial in determining the track and intensity of the storm. Will keep an eye on things the next few day. For now, still feel Central and Southern Mid Atlantic stands the best chance to be affected by this storm. Another update at some point Thursday.
