March 11, 1999
Here we are again, with another storm forecast to affect the area in the 3-4 day range
(Sunday night/Monday). We have seen this several times already this year, only to have
the supposed storm trek out to sea. I do not think that will be the case this time. This
discussion will be relatively short being that the potential is still a few days off. The past
few days, models have been indicating a storm system developing in the western Gulf of
Mexico and then tracking to the N/NE. This looks likely at this point. Questions still
remain as to the exact track. Over the past few days, models have trended to take the low
farther east (originally up the Appalachians, now up the seaboard). This is important in
two respects. Number one, a track of this nature would likely give our area a good chance
of frozen precip, or at least place us right on the border of rain-snow. Number two, if this
trend to the east continues, it could very well head just far enough off the coast to leave us
unaffected. I am slowly beginning to disregard scenario two because the EC (which had
the system fairly far off the coast yesterday)has trended about 50 miles farther west with
today's run. Therefore, I think the models are in agreement that this one will not go out to
sea. However, things could change. For whatever it's worth, the new EC places a 993 mb
low just to the east of ACY at D+4. A track this close could provide heavy snow, yet as
usual the EC keeps us right on the border. So, models are beginning to eye the coastal
seaboard as a probable track for this system. Rain or snow? Who knows yet. Don't be
fooled by anyone who thinks they have an idea yet. This is a *very close* call and is still
at least 3 days away. Check back tomorrow for more details on what could be winter's last
attempt at doing something for us here in PHL this winter.
