March 19, 2001
Let me first begin this discussion by addressing a few emails that I have received over the past week concerning lack of updates that a few folks thought were warranted. The purpose of the page is for updates to be issued when we think wintry weather is likely for the Delaware Valley. That being said, there haven't been any updates because there has NOT been any wintry weather to discuss. Yes, Saturday there was the 'chance' for our rain to change to snow. However, I did not see this scenario as likely, so I chose not to discuss it. The rain never changed to snow in the Delaware Valley. Therefore, aside from the busted forecast on March 5-6, the majority of the discussions on this page have been generally accurate. I'll warn you when wintry weather is expected. You have my word on it.
As for the weather this week, there were signs that we may have been in for some late winter/early spring frozen precipitation, so I announced that there would be an update at this time. However, any chance that we had at frozen precipitation for Wednesday has been shot down as guidance has trended farther West with the coastal storm. That means that as the area of low pressure moves up the coast, it will bring warm air with it from the ocean. The only chance for wintry precipitation would come at the tail end of the event in the form of some wet, backlash flakes as the storm passes by and colder air filters in from the West.
Rather than get into details about a rainstorm, a general storm outline seems more reasonable. Low pressure will be moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. It is then forecasted to hug the Eastern Seaboard as it moves Northward during the day on Tuesday. Rain is expected to develop during the morning Wednesday as the storm nears the North Carolina Coastline. Rain may become heavy during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday as the low pressure area continues to track Northward. Rain continues Wednesday night and into Thursday, but tapers to showers in the afternoon with 'maybe' a few wet snowflakes thrown in to the mess. Highs on Wednesday around 45, highs on Thursday in the low to mid 40s.
So, nothing really 'wintry' to discuss. Just a decent late-season Nor'Easter moving up the coast. Beach erosion and some tidal flooding is a possibility on the coast. Other than that, the system is NOT expected to stall and should be out of our hair by late Thursday. Yes, it will be a slow mover, so folks at the shore should keep a heads up for the aforementioned coastal erosion and potential flooding during the Spring tide. All in all, a big March rainstorm for Philadelphia and nearby suburbs. I will likely add another update on Tuesday just to detail the potential effects down at the shore. For now, take care!
