March 2, 2001
Quiet weather through at least the first part of the weekend, then potential snowstorm lurks for late weekend/early week. Guidance tonight has really begun to go bonkers with the potential winter storm early next week. My forecast has really not changed a whole lot however. Still thinking the Mid Atlantic feels the brunt of the storm (for definition purposes, I consider PHL Northern Mid-Atlantic). Regardless, things look to go downhill by Sunday afternoon in our area.
Friday will be partly sunny with highs in the low 40s.
Ditto on Saturday and a touch cooler. Highs around 40. Then the fun begins.
Guidance has begun a trend to the North with our potential storm system for Monday. As this is being typed, the beginnings of our possible nasty weather maker can be seen on radar and satellite near Texas. This upper low will begin to pull East on Friday. Meanwhile, the polar vortex in SE Canada begins to slide E while a piece of energy gets redirected Westward over top of the low. This general area is the key to the forecast. The vortmax which moves West should begin to dig Southward near the Western Great Lakes during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, a low in the Western Gulf is beginning to pull ENE towards Louisiana. As the energy near the Lakes begins to dive South and energize, it will pahse with the Southern energy near the coast. The main low should transfer it's energy towards the NC coast and the system will begin to intensify rapidly. Meanwhile, the Northern energy will 'capture' the surface low as it becomes nearly stationary for a period early Monday. Not sure exactly where this happens, but guidance hints somewhere near the NC/VA border coastline. While all this is going on at the upper levels, areas in the Central Mid Atlantic are getting hit with heavy snow and high winds. Need to mention that there will likely be tidal flooding and possible extensive beach erosion for many coastal areas in the Mid Atlantic. Guidance is still somewhat sketchy on the details of where exactly the low tracks after Hatteras, but am leaning towards a NE track as opposed to ENE as was being shown yesterday. The system continues to intensify during the day on Monday as it slowly drifts NE.
What does that mean for us? Well, simply put, the likelihood for snow exist for Sunday night possibly into Monday night and even Tuesday morning. Right now, still too early to say for sure if our area gets into the heavy band of snow or just sees periods of snow. My general thinking is as follows: Heavy rains in parts of the South, primarily GA,SC,TN, parts of NC. Heavy snow in the mountains of North Carolina, VA, S DE, S NJ, parts of MD. Accumulating snows E PA, remainder of NJ, parts of NY, CT, RI, and MA. Beach erosion and high winds along much of the coast, especially the Mid Atlantic and coastal New England. More details the next few days. For now, stay tuned to the local weather. Trends are quite interesting for early next week.
