March 4, 2001
Anyway you cut it, our area is in for 'potentially' the worst snowstorm in over 100 years for some areas. Key word, potentially. Regardless, this event has the potential to be the worst storm in our area since the January 1996 Blizzard, although current data suggest heaviest precip remains North and West of the city. Totals may not exceed those totals from January 1996, but overall storm stucture and pressure gradient combination will result in greater coastal damage than that storm for many coastal sections from NC to Cape Cod. Rather than ramble on as to what each model says and what will transpire at upper levels to help develop this storm (see Discussion Archive for those details, I will simply post my general forecast for the PHL area. The time frame for this event is as follow:
Sunday midday...showers developing. Calm winds.
Sunday night...showers changing to moderate snow, accumulations around 2 inches before midnight.
Monday...near blizzard conditions likely at times, winds in excess of 30 mph especially in the afternoon and evening with gusts to near 50 in the evening. Periods of snow. Accumulations near 6-10" by Monday night.
Monday night...near blizzard conditions early tapering to moderate snow and snow showers. Strong winds continuing. Accumulations by Tuesday morning between 8-14"
Tuesday...periods of light to moderate snow continuing but tapering off to snow showers and flurries late in the day. High winds will continue, but slowly begin decrease Tuesday night as the system begins to move away from the coast. Total snow accumulations 10-20"
That is all for now. There will likely be one more pre-storm update around midnight to see if we can fine-tune the snowfall totals at all. The snow will be heavy and wet as opposed to light and fluffy as we experienced in 1996. This increases the chances for tree limbs snapping and power outages. Severe beach erosion, tidal flooding, and near hurricane force winds are likely down by the Jersey shore. This is one for the record books folks for some areas in the Northeast. If you like the snow, enjoy it. If you don't like the snow, just remember, it's almost spring. Take care.
