ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 311446
MKC AC 311446

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 311500Z - 011200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0475...VALID TIL 1900Z
REF WW NUMBER 0476...VALID TIL 1900Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PTNS OF SRN AND ERN NY...NRN
AND CENTRAL PA...NRN NJ...EXTREME WRN VT...EXTREME WRN MA...TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MPV 15 S RUT 20 W BAF 20 W BDR 25 ENE ABE
25 NW CXY PIT 15 ESE FKL 10 NNW BFD 30 NW ITH 30 SE ART 20 S SLK 25
W MPV.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N BML 20 W BOS 20 WSW GON TTN HGR 25 NNW SHD 30 W TRI 40 NE DYR
15 N PAH EVV 40 E BMG 35 S FDY 15 WNW CLE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNE HAT 30 ESE RWI 25 NW SOP AVL CHA 20 N MSL 20 NE MEM ARG
45 SW BLV DNV 30 S SBN 20 S DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM GPT
45 SSW SEM 25 S AUO ANB 20 S MSL UOX 30 ESE PGO MLC 20 NW MKO UMN
JEF UIN CID 20 SSW MCW 30 NNW OMA 10 N GRI 25 SE MCK 50 ENE 4LJ
20 W LIC LAR 15 SE RKS SLC U31 35 WSW BIH 15 N SAC 30 W MHS
30 ESE SLE PDT 30 E EPH 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB LWT
30 SSE MLS 25 ESE REJ 15 ESE P05 40 SW MHE 30 NE FSD AXN TVF
65 W D45.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NERN STATES TODAY. A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WITH A SECONDARY JET
MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES INTO ONTARIO WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. INTENSE MCS OVER LAKE HURON HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTEROON
AS AIRMASS RECOVERS. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NY/NRN
PA AND ERN OH PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS
INDICATE A DISTINCT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. IF MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...HELICITY AND STORM RELATIVE FLOW
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADOES.

FARTHER SW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP BREAKS. ALTHOUGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WARM ALOFT...STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

..VESCIO.. 05/31/98

NNNN