SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 161934
MKC AC 161934

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 161930Z - 171200Z

REF WW 592 VALID TIL 2200Z.
REF WW 593 VALID TIL 0000Z.
REF WW 594 VALID TIL 0100Z.
REF WW 595 VALID TIL 0200Z.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSW SSI 10 SE MAI 35 NNE MOB 30 NNW LUL 20 NE CKL 45 S TYS
30 NW TRI HTS CMH 20 S ERI 15 ESE BGM 15 WSW ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSE GCK 15 NNE TAD 25 NW FCL 30 S GCC 45 NE 4BQ 15 ESE Y22
50 ENE PIR 25 S FSD OMA 45 WNW CNK 30 SSE GCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GLS LFK
35 N MEI 35 ENE HSV 20 W BWG 40 NE PAH 35 SSW TBN 45 ESE ICT
35 W CSM 40 E TCC 35 NE CEZ BCE 25 N U31 45 SE BNO 30 NNE 4OM
...CONT... 15 N PBG 20 ENE PWM.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN OH.  MODELS
INDICATE THAT SECOND VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ROUNDING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY
EARLY TONIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...

EXPANDED THE SLGT RISK AREA NWD TO MATCH PERSISTENCE IN THE TRACK
OF VORTICITY MAX OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO AREA WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG.  RUC2 MODEL INDICATES MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 65 KT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN VA/NRN NC BY 00Z.  THIS SEEMS
REALISTIC AS BNA VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS AT 5000 FEET NOW
AT 70 KT.  THUS...REAR INFLOW INTO THE BACK OF CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL OF BOW ECHO/DOWNBURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

...CENTRAL HI PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL SD...

NEEDED TO MOVE EARLIER SLGT RISK WWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LATEST ETA MODEL FOCUSES MAIN AREA OF WRN
U.S. TROUGH WITH THE SECOND...STRONG...VORTICITY MAX MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING OVER ERN CO INTO SERN WY AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN WY SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT. 
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30-35 KT WILL EXTEND NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS OVER ERN CO/ERN WY.  THIS
ENHANCES VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA.
 
..MCCARTHY.. 06/16/98


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