STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. 

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SLN
45 WSW RSL 40 WSW HLC 15 WNW GLD 30 W LIC 15 ENE 4FC 10 WNW LAR 15 SE
WRL 15 E COD 45 N COD 45 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 30 WNW SDY 45 NNW DIK 40 E Y22
20 ENE ANW 25 N GRI BIE 30 NE MHK 35 SSW MHK 30 WSW SLN. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF
40 W BKW 20 NW LOZ 55 E BWG 30 SW BWG 45 SW EVV 25 SSE SPI 15 WNW BMI 15
SE MMO 15 NW SBN 15 E DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 20 S HUL. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 15 ESE POE 40
NNW TXK 15 WSW MKO 40 N END 25 SE DDC 35 SW GCK 25 WNW CAO 35 SE LVS 25
N ROW 30 WNW INK 15 WSW FST 35 SW P07 ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 35 W GBN 60
NE BLH 45 WSW EED 10 SW DAG 45 NE BFL 25 N FAT 45 NNW SAC 55 N UKI 30 SE
CEC 50 SE OTH 15 S SLE 30 SW YKM 30 S EPH 15 SSW GEG 60 NE GEG 90 WNW
FCA ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 15 NNE MOT 20 SE BIS 35 SE MBG 35 SE 9V9 20 NW
OFK 15 NNE OMA 35 WSW DSM 35 E DSM 40 SE DBQ 30 NE JVL 30 S ESC 45 E
MQT. 

...SYNOPSIS... 

LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.  SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS ARE FORECAST
TO ROTATE NWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN /
ROCKIES AND THEN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...POLAR
VORTEX INITIALLY OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ALLOWING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SSEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  THIS FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH WEAKER SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE
FRAGMENTED WITH NRN PORTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE FURTHER WEST THE FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY
SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. 

...OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... 

A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS / FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF
POLAR UPPER LOW.  ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS OF BOUNDARIES REMAIN UNCERTAIN
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND AFTERNOON
HEATING.  STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY ALONG
VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY.  BY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THAT TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ONE NEW ENGLAND AND
ERN PA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DELMARVA REGION...AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION. 

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW SOUTH OF UPPER LOW.  WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED
DAMAGING WIND EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER
EVALUATED DURING LATER OUTLOOKS. 

..GOSS.. 07/10/01



STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. 

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1
20 S HUL ...CONT... 25 SSE DOV 30 NNE SHD 20 E HTS 30 S LUK 45 N SDF 20
SSE HUF CMI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE CGX 10 N JXN 35 NNE MTC. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GDV
45 ESE SDY 40 E Y22 15 NE ANW LNK 30 WSW COU 45 N POF 15 NNW DYR 10 S
MEM 60 E LIT 55 SE HRO 15 N UMN 20 WNW EMP 40 W HLC 15 WSW LIC 35 SE 4FC
10 WNW LAR 50 ESE WRL 35 SSE BIL 65 NNE BIL 60 S GGW 30 N GDV. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 15 NNE MOT 20
SE BIS 35 SE MBG 35 SE 9V9 20 NW OFK 15 NNE OMA 35 WSW DSM 35 E DSM 40
SE DBQ 30 NE JVL 30 S ESC 45 E MQT 
...CONT... 7R4 20 ESE ESF 30 NE TXK 10 S MKO PNC 20 NNW P28 10 ESE GCK
25 S LAA 35 SE LVS 25 N ROW 30 WNW INK 15 WSW FST 35 SW P07. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 40 NW GBN 20
ESE EED DAG 25 SSW EKA. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ONP 55 W YKM 15 NNE
EAT 30 NNW 63S. 

...SYNOPSIS... 

UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THIS PERIOD WITH SWLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND
NWLY FLOW OVER THE EAST. NUMEROUS VORT MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...ACTING TO FOCUS TSTM CLUSTERS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MID SOUTH.  OTHERWISE...A SPEED MAX NOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SEWD ALONG EDGE OF JAMES BAY POLAR VORTEX INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID SOUTH.  TO THE
EAST...SEVERAL PREFRONTAL TROUGHS WILL EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD
FROM ONTARIO. 

...OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... 

ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING INTO NRN/WRN NY AND NRN PA SEEM TO BE AIDED
BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SWRN
ONTARIO.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EWD AND SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES...TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE/DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS
AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE VALUES AND 40-50 KTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 

FARTHER SWWD...LARGE SCALE UVV WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGHS AND UPPER DVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE
ACROSS LOWER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER TO THE PROFILE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES ALONG WITH HAIL.  

..RACY.. 07/10/01