ACUS1 KMKC 161918
SWODY1
MKC AC 161918

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 161900Z - 171200Z

REF WW NUMBER 690 AND 691 VALID TIL 0100Z.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS NERN AND E CNTRL PA...SERN NY
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NRN HALF OF NJ.  THE MDT RISK IS RIGHT OF
A LINE FROM 15 E NEL 25 NW PHL 30 S IPT 20 N IPT BGM 30 N MSV 20
ENE POU BID.

THERE IS ALSO A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS S CNTRL AND SERN LWR
MI...MUCH OF NRN IND...AND NWRN AND N CNTRL OH.  THE MDT RISK IS
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW YNG 30 SW CAK 25 NW CMH 15 NW MIE 15 NE
LAF 30 SE CGX 15 ESE BEH FNT 25 NE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E ACY 25 ESE CXY AOO 15 ENE LBE 15 SSE HLG 20 NW PKB 40 E LUK
35 NE EVV 50 WNW CGI 30 N JLN TOP 35 ESE LNK DSM 15 WSW DBQ
25 NE MKE 55 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 NE ART GFL 10 NE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 40 NW TUS
50 WNW PHX 50 NE IGM GUP 35 NNE SAF 35 ENE ALS 45 E ASE 30 ENE CAG
RKS 40 E MLD 20 NNE BYI 45 NNW BOI 40 WNW ALW 60 E BLI ...CONT...
80 ENE 63S 30 WSW GTF 20 NW MLS 20 SW Y22 30 N PIR MHE 20 NW OTG
25 NW LSE 40 WNW SSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LCH 20 SSW ESF
30 SSW ELD 20 WSW FSM END 35 NW CSM 25 S CDS 40 NNE SJT 40 NW HDO
20 WNW MFE.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BOW ECHO THAT HAS BEEN MOVG EWD ACRS WRN NY/NWRN PA ERY TDA IS MOVG
MORE S OF E ATTM.  THIS ACTVTY IS MOVG ALG STG THERMAL/MSTR
GRADIENT ACRS ERN PA INTO NRN NJ.

TSTMS DVLPD RPDLY ACRS SWRN LWR MI NEWD BTWN MBS AND FNT.  18Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDC WEAK SFC TROF/WIND SHIFT ACRS THIS AREA AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDCD A GEN CONFLUENCE ACRS THIS RGN WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACRS S CNTRL WI.  THIS IS COMBINING WITH EXIT RGN OF
40 KT LO LVL JET TO INITIATE THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ACTVTY IS EXPCD
TO FOLLOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BNDRY LEFT FROM MRNG ACTVTY THAT MOVD
THRU NRN OH.  DYNAMIC FORCING IS PRESENT IN RGT ENTRANCE RGN OF 80
KT MID LVL JET AS INDC BY VAD WND PROFILES ACRS THE GRTLKS.

ELSEWHERE...HI THETA-E AXIS EXTDS FM OK/KS ENEWD S OF FNTL BNDRY
ACRS THE LWR GRTLKS.  MID LVL CLOUDS ACRS NERN KS IS EXPCD TO MOV
INTO MO NXT SVRL HRS CLOSER TO LO LVL JET. TSTMS ARE EXPCD TO DVLP
ACRS NRN MO LTR THIS AFTN AND TNGT WHERE MDLS INDC FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTBL AMS WITH SFC DWPNTS IN THE MID
70S AND CAPE BTWN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDC
VORT MAX MOVG NEWD OUT OF OK PNHDL INTO S CNTRL KS ATTM WHICH HAS
BEEN THE VORT MAX THAT THE MDLS HAVE BEEN DVLPG AN MCC/MCS OVR MO
TNGT.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/16/97