National Weather Service Upton, NY (KOKX) morning Area Forecast Discussion
for July 1, 2001

FIRST TROF MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH STORMS JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. GOT NO REPORTS OF ANY DAMAGE YET. DON/T EXPECT TO BE THAT LUCKY
THIS EVENING AS THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY BIG EVENT. 

MODELS HAVE ALL HAD CONSISTENT TIMING ON THE COLD FRONT OF 00 TO 03Z FOR
THE OKX CWA. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART OF THIS IS THE DYNAMICS DRIVING
THE SYSTEM WITH A 100+ KNOT JET MAX WHICH LEAVES THE OKX CWA IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF TEXTBOOK LOOKING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LOCAL MM5 CRASHED ON THE 00Z RUN IS IS NOT
AVAILABLE. 

ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION CONTAMINATED AND DO
NOT SHOW THE TRUE EXTENT OF THE CAPE/INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. WIND ARE
UNI-DIRECTION AND THUS DON/T PROVIDE MUCH HELICITY...BUT DO TO THE POWER
OF THE DYNAMICS...TORNADIC SPIN-UPS ALONG BOWS OF THE SQUALL LINE
(GUSTNADOES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN
THREAT THOUGH AND WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN ALL PRODUCTS. 
WILL ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPS) AND USE ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE BOTH THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS...THOUGH I EXPECT THE EVENING IS
WHEN THE BIG PROBLEM WILL OCCUR. 

BOTTOM-LINE...ALL SPOTTERS...MEDIA AND PUBLIC NEED TO PREPARE FOR A
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS EVENING. THINKING IS THAT THIS EVENT
COULD APPROACH THAT OF THE LABOR DAY 1998.



National Weather Service Binghamton, NY (KBGM) Area Forecast Discussion for
July 1, 2001, *from the evening of June 29*

18Z AVN AND ETA WERE CONSISTENT IN THEIR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
TIMING OF BOTH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY...BOTH OF WHICH ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE AVN REALLY SCREAMS SQUALL
LINE. THE ETA DOES TOO...BUT IT'S FASTER MOVEMENT MIGHT PUT THE WORST OF
THINGS TO OUR EAST. IT IS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY.



National Weather Service Binghamton, NY (KBGM) Area Forecast Discussion for
July 1, 2001, *from the evening of June 30*


THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A STRONG SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO TO FOR
TOMORROW. THE WIND FIELDS ARE SURE THERE...AS IS THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
A STRONG LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM (THE FRONT). HOWEVER THE 18Z MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
REFLECTION OF BOTH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...AND
THE MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY THAT
TENDS TO STABILIZE THE PROFILES BEFORE THINGS REALLY GET GOING. I CAN
SEE THAT HAPPENING...BUT I CAN ALSO SEE ONE REALLY NASTY LINE RIPPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  AS I SAID
LAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE A FUN DAY!