FXUS61 KCTP 281336 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 940 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001 ...WORK ZONES/ZONES ASAP... ...CHANGES... WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. ...DISC... ...SHORT TERM... SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING SE. DEWPOINTS NOT REAL HIGH...BUT FRONT COMING IN AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...AND MODERATE JET MAX PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BEST CHC THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS NE SECTIONS OF CWA. ...LONG TERM... CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. ...OTHER... SPS...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...ISSUED FOR SLIGHT RISK...N AND E SECTIONS OF CWA. .CTP...NONE. MARTIN
FXUS61 KCTP 280744 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 317 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001 TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY 2 DEG F OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST...AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO FOCUS ON FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE EXTREME NW ZONES BY 17Z...AND PUSH THROUGH THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LAGGED AVG FORECAST OF THE ETA'S PAST SEVERAL RUNS SHOWS A SUBTLE TREND TOWARD A DEEPER UPPER SHRT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 60 AND 65 WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS...ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WESTERLY WIND MAX OF 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS WHERE THE STRONGER STORM CORES COLLAPSE AND CHANNEL WESTERLY MOMENTUM INTO BOW ECHO FEATURES VIA LOCALIZED REAR INFLOW JETS. BASED ON THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...AND A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL...I INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS (AND PERHAPS HAIL) ACROSS THE MID SUSQ REGION AND NCENT MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BE STEADY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO NEAR KCLE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .CTP...SPS (SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK) ISSUED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSRA ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LAMBERT
FXUS61 KCTP 280039 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 837 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001 GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. SPARSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ACCOUNTING FOR SCATTERED 10-15K DECK...WHICH PROVIDED ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE SUMMER SUNSET. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE RESIDED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BACKBUILDING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN VISITED OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE ARE NOW DISSSIPATING WITH DIURNAL LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND BETWEEN OSHKOSH AND GREEN BAY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF PA BY 12 UTC AND INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS FOR SEVERE CHANCES TOMORROW...ONSET OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCATION OF BEST FORCING UP INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. AS I SEE IT...ONLY THE SOUTHEAST STANDS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE AVAILABLE CAPE BEFORE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 FOR THIS...ONCE AGAIN BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL TWEAK CLOUD WORKING SOME FOR THE OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. .CTP...NONE. DEVOIR
FXUS61 KCTP 271740 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 140 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001 ...WORK ZONES BY 330 PM... ...ZONES BY 355 PM... ...CHANGES... WILL KEEP FCST CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE NOW. WILL CALL FOR DRY WX FOR SUNDAY. ...DISC... ...SHORT TERM... EXCEPT FOR FAR SE...NOT A BAD AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY...THEN AN INCREASE IN CLDS LATE NW. MAIN SUPPORT FOR NEXT SYSTEM IS N OF C PA...THUS CHC POPS WILL COVER IT ON TUE. NW PA MAY NOT GET A LOT...AS ACTION COMES IN BEFORE MAX HEATING. AREAS NEAR MD BORDER MAY NOT GET MUCH TO LATE. ACTION COULD LINGER ALONG THE MD BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WOULD BE N OF OUR AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL MIGHT OCCUR. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN WED AM...BUT QUICKLY IS MODIFIED WED AFTERNOON. ...LONG TERM... A WARMER DAY ON THU...WITH MODERATE WARM ADVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY WOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO MIGHT NOT BE MUCH PRIOR TO 18Z FRIDAY. BEST SUPPORT IS TO THE NORTH AGAIN. MRF WANTS TO BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT THE MRF WANTED TO DO THIS FOR TOMMOROW (TUE)...WHEN I LOOKED AT THIS MODEL LAST WEEK. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY. ENJOY. .CTP...NONE. MARTIN
