STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK
40 ENE CXY 35 NNE PSB 20 NW ELM 30 NNW PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 45 ENE BGS
40 WSW MLC 25 E UNO 20 N BMG 45 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT 25 NNE JMS
35 NE ABR 30 ESE MKT 30 SSE ALO 30 S DSM 15 WNW OLU 25 NE LBF
30 SE AKO 10 N RTN 45 SE ELP ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 20 WNW INW
40 W ASE 10 WNW RIW 35 WNW BOI 15 WSW PDT 40 NE 63S.


...NORTHEAST...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ESEWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.  MID/UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH
A WLY JET LOCATED ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY BY LATER TODAY.  THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT/TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ERN LAKES AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY/NWRN PA/SRN OH
BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE THE MID 60S. 
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL NY BY MID DAY...WITH LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED
NNEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. 

CONVERGENCE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A WLY COMPONENT.  HOWEVER...STRONG UVV/S
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE FOR THE MORE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT SEVERAL SMALL BANDS OR LINES OF
STORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR NATURE EXPECTED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. 

THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF UVV/S SOUTH OF THE SPEED MAX IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THESE AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
BRIEF/ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

..EVANS.. 08/28/01
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z