donny2112 from the NeoGAF Analyst Group has released his 5-year forecast for the U.S. video game hardware market covering 2007 through 2011. According to Mr. 2112's report, the market in 2011 will show Nintendo's Wii in 1st place with 44% marketshare, Microsoft's 360 in 2nd with 31% marketshare, and Sony's PS3 in third with 25% of the market. Overall, Mr. 2112 expects this generation to be longer than previous generations due to the higher starting prices for the 360 and the PS3 and extended shortages of Nintendo's Wii into 2009 due to its international success which allows Nintendo to delay price cuts in the U.S.
In 2011, only one new-generation console will have been launched (Microsoft's 720 in November 2011). The PS3 will be experiencing a measure of sustained viability from a "relaunch" in late 2010 at $300 with a new design and possibly a Wiimote-like controller to appeal to the newfound casual market brought in by the Wii. Meanwhile, the Wii continues to sell on the back of its strong lineup of lifestyle titles to so-called "non-gamers."
Yearly breakdown's from Mr. 2112 are as follows:
GTA was a system seller this generation again, but the 360's lower cost of entry enabled it to take a clear advantage from the resultant hardware sales. Microsoft was also able to break even/make a small profit on the 360 hardware itself for a significant portion of its lifespan despite near-annual pricedrops on the console from 2008 on.
Sony, meanwhile, showed extreme losses in its PlayStation division into 2009. This prompted Sony to take the unusual step of "relaunching" the PS3 with a new design, price, and possibly an added Wiimote-like control scheme in late 2010. With no PS4 on the horizon due to the added R&D expense it would entail on Sony's PlayStation division, this "new" PS3 will be Sony's workhorse in the U.S. console battle for at least a few years to come. From the early games for Microsoft's 720, it looks like the PS3 can still hold its own in graphics for years, as well.
With the WII being mostly "out of stock" into 2009, the concept of a "system seller" lost some meaning. Nintendo's innovative line of "lifestyle" titles (Wii Healthpack, Wii Cooking, Wii Sports) appealed to previous "non-gamers" that entered the market anew this generation as well as much of the casual market attracted to the PS2 in the previous generation.
