U.S. Hardware Forecast - 2007-2011, p2


On the handheld front...

Mr. 2112 expects the Nintendo DS to have claimed approximately 65% of the next-gen handheld market by the end of 2011 with 45 million of the console being sold in the U.S. Sony's PSP also was able to sell a respectable 24 million by 2011 for a 35% marketshare. This was generally considered a success because 1) it was the most significant in-road against a Nintendo handheld in the U.S. and 2) the PSP hardware was profitable for the majority of its lifespan. This helped offset the losses from the PS3 for Sony's gaming division.

Yearly breakdown's from Mr. 2112 are as follows:

(in millions)

Pre-2007 (actual)
NDS: 9.1
PSP: 6.7

2007
NDS: 7.6
PSP: 3.3

2008
NDS: 7.1
PSP: 3.0

2009
NDS: 8.1
PSP: 3.6

2010
NDS: 7.8
PSP: 4.0

2011
NDS: 5.7
PSP: 3.7


Total by end of 2011:
NDS: 45.4 million
PSP: 24.3 million





Important Events

NDS:
Jul-09 - DSLite price drop - $99

PSP:
Nov-07 - PSP Slim released @ $200, PSP regular to be discontinued
Mar-08 - FFVII:CC released - 500K
Mar-09 - PSP Slim price drop - $170
2009 - GT:Mobile released - 750K
Jul-10 - PSP Slim price drop - $150
Jul-11 - PSP Slim price drop - $120


Sony was able to keep somewhat consistent annual sales for the PSP despite a relatively low attach rate due to the PSP Slim introduction in late 2007 and price drops. The PS2 and Wii's success in the 2007-2011 timeframe also kept software coming to the PSP via ports from those two systems and the occassional exclusive game (FFVII:Crisis Core, GT:Mobile). While not the undisputed success that Sony would have hoped for, the PSP proved to be a critical part of Sony's overall gaming plan through integration with the PS3 and its profitable nature.

Nintendo's DS continued to sell amazingly worldwide through the 2007-2011 timeframe due to the similar "non-gamers" that propelled the Wii. The DS's own "lifestyle" games (Brain Age, Language Training) combined with Pokemon in the U.S. to appeal to consumers at all ages at a level before unseen.



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