The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season will go down as the most active year ever recorded. After all, who’d ever thought the National Weather Service would run out of storm names and resort to letters in the Greek alphabet? Then made it all the way to Zeta to boot!

But there are a few wild-card possibilities that still lurk and could throw Dr. Gray’s prediction off course. Although these variables are incorporated in Dr. Gray’s equation used to forecast the number of storms, the precise impacts are not fully known until the season unfolds.

First, there’s the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) – a mid level region of strong winds for our African easterly waves normally located around 11° N latitude along the west coast of Africa. The exact location and shape of this jet can either make or break a season. If the jet is located too far south, the easterly waves coming off of the African coast may not have enough instability to produce a weather system. Furthermore, instability and storm formation tend to favor more sharply curved jets, thus a broadly shaped AEJ may also hinder chances for storm formation. For example, in 1997, a down year for storm formation in the Atlantic, we saw a southward-located and broad AEJ. Contrarily, in 1995, which was a very active season, we saw a sharply curved jet located north of what would be expected on average.

There’s also the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) – a dry, dusty air mass. This inhibits storm growth or can cause systems to weaken if this air becomes entrained in the system. These are monitored by satellite during the season. This means we can watch some of this dust make its way across the ocean, sometimes leaving a fine layer of dust on vehicles as far away as Florida. In fact, there are instruments in place in Florida to measure just how much of this dust makes its way across the Atlantic.

Finally, the exact position of the sub tropical high pressure (STHP), otherwise known as the Bermuda high, Atlantic anti-cyclonic gyre, among other aliases, has been parked close to home the past couple of seasons. With the high-pressure center located close to North America the past two years, we have seen storms steered into our coasts instead of moving harmlessly into theAzoresAtlantic. This actually appears to be more the norm than the exception. The landfall totals by state tell the tale, with Florida recording a whopping 10 strikes over 18 months. Look back over the last 100 years and the numbers are even more staggering.

These are only a few of many variables that go into predicting the number of storms for any given season. While the amount of storms called for this year is dramatically less than gyrated throughout Atlantic last year, it always pays to be prepared. And remember, there's not that much time left: The 2006 season officially kicks off June 1. 

Story courtesy of Surfline.com