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Recent and Future Developments

 
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Contents

1. Exploration of Mars
         1.1 Mars Exploration Rovers
         1.2 Future Missions
         1.3 Manned Missions
2. Space tourism
         2.1 Early Dreams
         2.2 Subsidiary Government Flights
         2.3 Commercial Space Flights
3. Space Colonization
        3.1 Life Support
        3.2 Self Replication
        3.3 Population Sizes
        3.4 Location
                         3.4.1 Mars
                         3.4.2 Moon
                         3.4.3 Mercury
                         3.4.4 Europa
                         3.4.5 Space Ship
4. External Links

Exploration of Mars

The exploration of Mars has been an important part of the space exploration missions of the Soviet Union (later Russia), the United States, Europe, and Japan. Dozens of unmanned spacecraft, including orbiters, landers, and rovers, have been launched toward Mars since the 1960s. These missions were aimed at gathering data and answering questions about the red planet and its past that may yield further insight into Earth's past, present, and future.

 

Rovers on Mars

Computer generated image of one of the two Mars Exploration Rovers which touched down on Mars in 2004.

The exploration of Mars has come at a considerable financial cost with roughly two-thirds of all spacecraft destined for Mars failing before completing or even beginning their missions. Part of this high failure rate can be ascribed to the large number of things that can go wrong, but enough have either failed or lost communications for no apparent reason that some researchers half-jokingly speak of an Earth-Mars "Bermuda Triangle" or of a Great Galactic Ghoul which subsists on a diet of Mars probes. This phenomenon is also known widely as the Mars Curse.

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Mars Exploration Rovers

Shortly after the launch of Mars Express, NASA sent a pair of twin rovers toward the planet as part of the Mars Exploration Rover Mission. On June 10, 2003, NASA's MER-A (Spirit) Mars Exploration Rover was launched. It successfully landed in Gusev Crater (believed once to have been a crater lake) on January 3, 2004. It examined rock and soil for evidence of the area's history of water. On July 7, 2003, a second rover, MER-B (Opportunity) was launched. It landed on January 24, 2004 in Meridiani Planum (where there are large deposits of hematite, indicating the presence of past water) to carry out similar geological work.

Despite technical difficulties with the rovers (believed to have been caused by corrupted flash memory) delaying exploration for several days, both rovers eventually began exploring their landing sites. The rover Opportunity landed in a particularly interesting spot, a crater with bedrock outcroppings. In fast succession mission team members announced on March 2 that data returned from the rover showed that these rocks were once "drenched in water", and on March 23 that it was concluded that they were laid down under-water in a salty sea. This represented the first strong direct evidence for liquid water being on Mars at some time in the past.

As of September 28, 2005, both rovers are still healthy, though starting to show their ages in ways that require occasional intervention from Earth, and discovering new things, including Heat Shield Rock, the first meteorite to be discovered on another planet.

By the end of July 2005, it was reported by the Sunday Times that the rovers may have carried the bacteria Bacillus safensis to Mars. According to one NASA microbiologist, this bacteria could survive both the trip and conditions on Mars. A book containing this claim, 'Out of Eden' by Alan Burdick, is due to be published in the United Kingdom later in 2005, though it must be mentioned that neither of the spacecrafts to reach surface of Mars was completely sterile.

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Future Missions

The next mission to Mars is the Phoenix Mars lander, expected to launch in 2007.

It should be followed by a (or a couple of) more capable rovers in 2009 or 2011 and by the European ExoMars mission in 2011. A second Scout mission should also be selected soon for 2011. The next mission could be a Mars Sample Return, starting no earlier as 2013, more probably during the next launch window 2016.

Russia is still planning to launch its Phobos-Grunt probe in 2009.

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Manned Missions

Many people, from Wernher von Braun on, have long advocated a manned mission to Mars as the next logical step for a manned space program after lunar exploration. Aside from the prestige such a mission would bring, advocates argue that humans would be easily able to outperform robotic explorers, justifying the expenses.

Because of the distance between Mars and Earth, the mission would be much more risky and more expensive than past manned flights to the Moon. Supplies and fuel would have to be prepared for a 2-3 year round trip and the spacecraft would have to be designed with at least partial shielding from intense solar radiation. A proposal called Mars Direct, advocated by Robert Zubrin of the Mars Society, is believed by many to be the most practical and affordable plan for a manned Mars mission.

United States President George W. Bush announced an initiative of manned space exploration on January 14, 2004, known as the Vision for Space Exploration. It includes a manned return to the moon by 2015 at the earliest, and suggests that manned missions to Mars may become a possibility at some point in the future. The European Space Agency has the long-term vision of sending a human mission to Mars by 2030, the Aurora Programme.

In the even longer term (centuries hence), some scientists believe Mars to be a good candidate for terraforming and human colonization, though other prominent skeptics (such as Robert L. Park) dispute the practicality of both. Many scientists have argued that if life is found on Mars, all human activities on the planet should be carried out with the goal of preservation in mind. Others argue that the presence of life on Mars would imply that life is prevalent throughout the universe; decreasing the relative importance of Martian microbes.

Paul Davies, professor at the Australian Centre for Astrobiology, believes that a one-way mission to Mars will greatly reduce the cost and technical difficulties of manned exploration.

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Space Tourism

Space tourism is the recent phenomenon of space travel by individuals for the purpose of personal pleasure. As of 2005, space tourism is only affordable to exceptionally wealthy individuals and corporations, with the Russian space program providing transport. Some are beginning to favor the term "personal spaceflight" instead, as in the case of the Personal Spaceflight Federation.

Among the primary attractions of space tourism are the uniqueness of the experience, the awesome and thrilling feelings of looking at Earth from space (described by astronauts as extremely intense and mind-boggling), status symbol, and various advantages of weightlessness.

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Early Dreams

After initial successes in space, many people saw intensive space exploration as inevitable. In the minds of many people, such exploration was symbolised by wide public access to space, mostly in the form of space tourism. Those aspirations are best remembered in science fiction works, such as Arthur C. Clarke's 2001: A Space Odyssey and Larry Niven's Known Space stories; however, during the 1960s and 1970s, it was common belief that space hotels would be launched by 2000. Many futurologists around the middle of the 20th century speculated that the average family of the early 21st century would be able to enjoy a holiday on the Moon.

The end of the space race, however, signified by the Moon landing, decreased the importance of space exploration and led to decreased importance of manned space flight.

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Subsidiary Government Flights

With the realities of the post-Perestroika economy in Russia, the space industry was especially starved for cash. It was decided to allow Toyohiro Akiyama, a reporter for Japanese television company TBS, to fly in 1990 to Mir with the eighth crew and return a week later with the seventh crew, for a price of $28m. Akiyama gave a daily TV-broadcast from orbit and also performed scientific experiments for Russian and Japanese companies. However the cost of the flight was paid by his company, which makes of Akiyama a business traveller rather than a tourist.

Whilst it is argued that John Glenn was essentially a tourist on his 1998 shuttle flight (STS-95), commercial space tourism did not resume for another ten years. MirCorp, a private venture by now in charge of the space station, began seeking potential space tourists to visit Mir in order to offset some of its maintenance costs. Dennis Tito, an American businessman and former JPL scientist, became their first candidate. When the decision to dismantle Mir was made, though, MirCorp opted to instead send Tito to the International Space Station.

On the 28th of April 2001 Tito became the first fee-paying space tourist when he visited the ISS for seven days. He was followed in 2002 by South African computer millionaire Mark Shuttleworth. The third was Gregory Olsen in 2005, who is trained as a scientist and whose company produces specialist high-sensitivity camera. Olsen, plans to use his time on the ISS to conduct a number of experiments, in part to test his company's products. Olsen had planned an earlier flight, but had to cancel for health reasons. Other individuals interested in making the trip include boy band singer Lance Bass who had to cancel a planned flight due to funding problems.

After the Columbia disaster, space tourism on the Russian Soyuz program was temporarily put on hold, as Soyuz vehicles became the only available transport to the ISS.

The American company Space Adventures has an agreement with the Russian space agency Rosaviacosmos for a dedicated commercial flight to the ISS. The price for a trip on the Soyuz rocket is $20 million, with a preliminary launch date of 2005.

NASA Public Relations have coined the term Spaceflight participant to designate space tourists. Tito, Shuttleworth and Olsen have been designated as such during their respective space flights.

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Commercial Space Flights

More affordable space tourism is viewed as a money-making proposition by several companies, including Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, Armadillo Aerospace, XCOR Aerospace, Rocketplane, and others. Most are proposing vehicles that make suborbital flights peaking at an altitude of 100 kilometres. Passengers would experience several minutes of weightlessness, a view of a twinkle-free starfield, and a vista of the curved Earth below. Projected costs are expected to be in the range of $100,000 per passenger, with costs dropping over time to $20,000.

Under current US law, any company proposing to launch paying passengers from American soil on a suborbital rocket must receive a license from the Federal Aviation Administration's Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST). The licensing process focuses on public safety and safety of property, and the details can be found in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 14, Chapter III.

Constellation Services International (CSI) is working on a project to send manned spacecraft on commercial circumlunar missions. Their offer would include a week-long stay at the ISS, as well as a week-long trip around the Moon. They expect to be operational by 2008, according to their best case scenario. Space Adventures Ltd. have also announced that they are working on lunar missions, also possibly in 2008 or 2009

In the long term, orbital tourism may be superseded by planetary (and, later still, interstellar) tourism. Such possibilities have been explored in detail in many science fiction works.

More information about the future of Space Tourism can be found at www.robert-goehlich.de Space Tourism Lecture, which is a free online Space Tourism Lecture handout collection. Since 2003 Dr. Robert A. Goehlich teaches the world's first and only Space Tourism class at Keio University, Yokohama, Japan.

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Space Colonization

Space colonization, also called space settlement and space humanization, is the hypothetical permanent autonomous (self-sufficient) human habitation of locations outside Earth. It is a major theme in science fiction. Several design groups at NASA and elsewhere have examined the feasibility of various schemes. They have determined that there are ample quantities of all the necessary materials on the Moon and Near Earth Asteroids, that solar energy is readily available in very large quantities, and that no new scientific breakthroughs are necessary, although a great deal of engineering would be required.

Artist's conception of a space habitat called the Stanford torus, by Don Davi

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Life Support

For humans to live permanently outside Earth, the habitat must maintain variables within an appropriate range, ie. homeostasis. The habitat must contain non-human species--for example, microorganisms and crop plants.

The relationship between organisms, their habitat and the non-Earth environment can be:

  • Organisms and their habitat fully isolated from the environment (examples include artificial biosphere, Biosphere 2, life support system)

  • Changing the environment to become a life-friendly habitat (a process called terraforming)

  • Changing organisms to become more compatible with the environment, ie. integrating the habitat into organisms.

A combination of the above is also possible.

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Self Replication

Self-replication is an optional attribute, but many think it the ultimate goal because it allows a much more rapid increase in colonies, while eliminating costs to and dependence on Earth. It could be argued that the establishment of such a colony would be Earth's first act of self-replication. Intermediate goals include colonies that expect only information from Earth (science, engineering, entertainment, etc.) and colonies that just require periodic supply of light weight objects, such as integrated circuits, medicines, genetic material and perhaps some tools.

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Population Sizes

In 2002, the anthropologist Dr. John Moore estimated that a population of 150-180 would allow normal reproduction for 60-80 generations--equivalent to 2000 years.

A much smaller initial population of two female humans should be viable as long as human embryos are available from Earth. Use of a sperm bank from Earth also allows a smaller starting base with negligible inbreeding.

Researchers in conservation biology have tended to adopt the "50/500" rule of thumb initially advanced by Franklin and Soule. This rule says a short-term effective population size (Ne) of 50 is needed to prevent an unacceptable rate of inbreeding, while a long-term Ne of 500 is required to maintain overall genetic variability. The Ne=50 prescription corresponds to an inbreeding rate of 1% per generation, approximately half the maximum rate tolerated by domestic animal breeders. The Ne=500 value attempts to balance the rate of gain in genetic variation due to mutation with the rate of loss due to genetic drift.

Effective population size Ne depends on the number of males Nm and females Nf in the population according to the formula:

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Location

Location is a frequent point of contention between space colonization advocates.

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Mars

Mars is a frequent topic of discussion. Its overall surface area is similar to the dry land surface Earth, it has large water reserves, and has carbon (locked as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). It may have gone through similar geological and hydrological processes as Earth and contain valuable mineral ores, but this is debated. Equipment is available to extract in situ resources (water, air, etc.) from the Martian ground and atmosphere.

However, its atmosphere is very thin (averaging 800 Pa or about 0.8% of Earth sea-level atmospheric pressure) and the climate is colder. Its gravity is only around a third that of Earth. There is also the problem of native bacteria, which may live on Mars. Mars is often the topic of discussion regarding terraforming to make the entire planet or at least large portions of it habitable.

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Moon

Due to its proximity and relative familiarity, Earth's Moon is also frequently discussed as a target for colonization. It has the benefits of close proximity to Earth and lower gravity, allowing for easier exchange of goods and services. A major drawback of the Moon is its low abundance of volatiles necessary for life such as hydrogen and carbon. Water ice deposits thought to exist in some polar craters could serve as significant sources for these elements.

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Mercury

There is a suggestion that Mercury could be colonized using the same technology, approach and equipment that is used in colonization of the Moon.

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Europa

The Artemis Project designed a plan to colonize Europa, one of Jupiter's moons. Scientists were to inhabit igloos and drill down into the Europan ice crust, exploring any sub-surface ocean. It also discusses use of "air pockets" for human inhabitation.

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Space Ship

A colony ship would be similar to a space habitat, except with major propulsion capabilities and independent power generation.

Concepts proposed in hard science fiction include:

  • Generation ship, hypothetical starship that would travel much slower than light between stars, with the crew going through multiple generations before the journey is complete

  • Sleeper ship, hypothetical spaceship in which most or all of the crew spend the journey in some form of hibernation or suspended animation

  • Embryo carrying Interstellar Starship (EIS), hypothetical starship much smaller than a generation ship or sleeper ship transporting human embryos in a frozen state to an exoplanet

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External Links

 

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