Picks for the Emmys: It's time to move beyond the predictable

BYLINE: By Charlie McCollum -- As much as the Tonys, Grammys and Oscars are bad-mouthed every year for their failings, no award takes quite the abuse television's Emmy receives on an annual basis.

In a sense, it's unfair.

As the television world expands, it has become harder and harder for voters to just keep track of Emmy-worthy shows -- let alone pay proper attention to them. While the Emmys once had the reputation of honoring low-rated, high-quality shows and boosting them to hit status -- "Hill Street Blues," "Cheers" and "Cagney & Lacey" all fall into that category -- it has in recent years become more and more reliant on the predictable and the familiar.

The criticism of the Emmy system reached a crescendo last September.

Once again, a number of innovative shows -- most notably "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" -- received almost no recognition. The acting awards went to performers whose best work had been done in previous years. (To their credit, both Dennis Franz of "NYPD Blue" and John Lithgow of "3rd Rock From the Sun" were openly embarrassed by their awards.)

But the real screams of outrage came when "The Practice," which had a good year, beat out "The Sopranos," arguably one of the best series to ever appear on TV, for top drama. "Practice" creator David E. Kelley may have been pleased, but almost no one else was.

The major problem is a quirky voting system that all but ensures predictable nominees and even more predictable winners.

All the members of the Academy of Television Arts & Science get to vote on the nominees, and they probably watch less television than the average American. Many producers, directors and actors will openly admit they watch almost no TV shows except their own -- which means they're voting on the basis of reputation, friendship or some corporate connection, rather than quality.

But the bigger problem has been the final vote. Under the old system, the only people who could vote for the final winners were those in the industry who could commit to being locked up in a room to view all the nominees in one weekend sitting. The panels have been too dependent on older members who were out of touch with what little cutting-edge TV got through the nominating process.

The academy is trying something different this year: a system where the "judging panels" will be allowed to view tapes at home. The hope is that more active TV professionals will be able to make time to serve on the panels, thereby making them more representative of the industry as a whole.

There are those who think the change will actually make the situation worse, since -- pressed for time and unable to watch every video -- those on the judging panel may vote for the familiar. But at least the academy is trying to change what has become a system that doesn't always acknowledge the best television has to offer.

To give the voters a little more help before the Emmy nominations are announced Thursday, here's a list of who and what really ought to be nominated for the past season's honors:

Best drama "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" (WB) "Freaks and Geeks" (NBC) " Once and Again" (ABC) "The Sopranos" (HBO) "The West Wing" (NBC)

This category is so tough that perennial favorites "NYPD Blue" and "Law & Order" had to be left out. My guess is that, in the real world, "Sopranos" and "West Wing" are locks, with "Once and Again" on the bubble. "Buffy" and "Freaks" probably will get dumped in favor of (pick two) "NYPD Blue," "Law & Order," "ER," "The Practice" or "Judging Amy."

Best actor-drama Dennis Franz, "NYPD Blue" James Gandolfini, "Sopranos" Ted Levine, "Wonderland" Martin Sheen, "West Wing" Billy Campbell, "Once and Again"

John Spencer of "West Wing" should really be on this list, because his role is equal in size (and impact) to Sheen's. But since he has chosen to be considered for supporting actor, that leaves room for Campbell, Rick on "Once and Again. " "Wonderland" deserves some nomination, even though it aired only two shows, and Levine would be a good pick. But that slot probably will go to Rick Schroder of "NYPD Blue" -- not a bad pick.

Best actress-drama Linda Cardellini, "Freaks and Geeks" Margaret Colin, "Now and Again" Edie Falco, "Sopranos" Sarah Michelle Gellar, "Buffy" Julianna Marguiles, "ER"

Falco and Marguiles seem certain to get nominations, but Sela Ward of "Once and Again" and Amy Brenneman of "Judging Amy" are likely to take two spots at the expense of Colin and Cardellini. And Gellar gets no respect from Emmy voters, so she could lose out to Gillian Anderson of "The X-Files" or Annie Potts of "Any Day Now."

Best supporting actor-drama Dennis Haysbert, "Now and Again" Samm Levine, "Freaks and Geeks" James Marsters, "Buffy" John Spencer, "West Wing" Bradley Whitford, "West Wing"

Jerry Orbach and Steven Hill of "Law & Order," Richard Schiff of "West Wing," Michael Imperioli of "Sopranos," Paul McCrane of "ER" and Henry Simmons of "NYPD Blue" would all be acceptable nominees. A couple of them will get in because Emmy voters aren't likely to acknowledge the work of Haysbert, Marsters and Levine.

Best supporting actress-drama

Tyne Daly, "Judging Amy" Alyson Hannigan, "Buffy" Allison Janney, "West Wing" Susanna Thompson, " Once and Again" Julia Whelan, "Once and Again"

Another tough call, since Molly Price of "Third Watch" and Heather Matarazzo of "Now and Again" certainly deserve recognition. There's a good chance the voters will find room for Camryn Manheim of "The Practice" and either Laura Innes or Alex Kingston from "ER." And voters may very well decide to give posthumous recognition to Nancy Marchand of "The Sopranos."

EMMY AWARDS

Nominations: Announced 8:38 a.m. ET Thursday at the Leonard Goldenson Theatre, Los Angeles

Awards: Sept. 10, ABC telecast hosted by Garry Shandling. Check local listings for time.__San Jose Mercury News (July 16, 2000)