Juvenile fillies take off in Hermes Winged Flight

The 10th race on this dream card of international racing is the $400 K Hermes Winged Flight-G2. Twelve 2 year old fillies will compete on the firm turf course over the distance of 8 furlongs and as one analyses the field, the race is may well be more contentious than it appears at first glance. While all of the lasses have raced on the surface before, only four have competed at the mile distance thus creating the opportunity for a surprise or two. The structure of the Equinics lends itself to an interesting mix of sim stars and sim non-stars and this race is no exception. Let's have a look.

The 5-2 morning line co-favorite is the division's # 1 ranked runner, Provellian (philcan2) representing Nevada. No big surprise here as the talented daughter of Machiavellian and a Lyphard mare shows 5 wins from 7 starts and over $600,000 in earnings already. She won the Fauster's Juvenile Cup-G1 at 6f in her only grass start as well as two G2 main track sprints with SRs as high as 92. Her turf SR was a sprightly 85 as she battled early for the lead then made her move on the turn eventually winning by 1 1/4 lengths. Bred beautifully for the lawn, Provellian has every right to claim favoritism in this race although she does not come without question marks. She is one of many who has never tried a mile on turf or dirt and while her pedigree suggests it should be well within reach, you never really know til you see her do it. Of more concern is her performance in her last 2 starts. Provellian popped out 5 wins to begin her career but has missed the board in her last 2 races. She just didn't look good in week 746 as she didn't show her normal forward style and just kind of muddled along finishing 6th by 8 1/4 at 7 1/2f. Three weeks ago she again looked a little less eager but remained in contention to the stretch call before fading to 7th and earning a low (for her) 80 SR. Her form appears to be tailing off and coupled with the unknown distance she is definitely not a lock for the victory.

The second co-favorite is Auror Storm (auror) representing Iowa. The well bred daughter of Storm Cat and a Forty Niner mare is currently ranked # 3 in the division and spoerts a record of 6-1-3-1 with almost $250 K earned. After scoring an easy maiden win, Auror Storm has run exclusively in graded races and has competed well despite the lack of wins. Her effort 2 weeks ago in the Getaway S.-G1 may well have been her best as she looked poised for victory at the top of the stretch only to flatten out to finish 3rd beaten 3. She has finished 2nd in both of her grass starts with speeds of 83 and 77. Auror Storm does not possess a typically turfy pedigree but she seems to handle the surface well. She did finish 2nd to Provellian in the Fauster's at 6f but cut into the winner's lead in the stretch and her running lines suggest that she might enjoy this distance. Auror Storm has attended the early speed but just hasn't demonstrated the required oomph in the stretch. Perhaps the slightly more relaxed fractions of a mile may be to her liking. Her form is positive and she has a good shot at the win on Saturday.

The third choice at 5-1 is Gots The Gold Teef (sabbath) representing the Vikings. No walrus this one as the daughter of King of Kings and a Mr. Prospector mare shows 2 wins from 5 starts and no off the board finishes while competing exclusively on the turf. She's been brought along slowly running in her first stake last time out where she finished 3rd by 3 1/2 over 7f. Gots The Gold Teef also possesses the highest grass SR in the field having earned an 87 in an allowance win on good turf. Unlike the co-favs, she has gone the mile distance before earning a 78 SR while finishing 3rd. It seemed a little out of reach in week 718 and could still be this week although she has obviously developed since then. Gots The Gold Teef likes the lead and she should be flying right from the start here. The obvious question to be answered is whether she wants to go the 8f or not. If she does then she could be very tough.

The other entrant in single digit odds is Jupiter The Sea (winlist) representing California at 8-1. The daughter of Green Desert and a Seattle Slew mare debuted successfully in week 627 posting a 71 SR for 6f on the turf then didn't return until week 739 when she finished 2nd in the Escapade Juvenile-G3 after making much of the running. She now appears in the Equinics with 7 weeks rest. Don't know why the races have been so spread out but she has demonstrated talent in both starts so it may not be important. Her top SR of 76 is below the fasted here but as lightly raced as she is she has lots of room for improvemt. Another who likes the early advantage, Jupiter The Sea will battling Gots The Gold Teef and others on the front end and will have to pick up the speed to get the job done. Green Desert is primarily a sire of sprinters in real life but its hard to get a good read off of just 2 races. Lots of questions with this one but it wouldn't be a total shock to see her in the winner's circle.

Madyson's Hi (phillipj) represents Vermont at 11-1 and she looks like she could be a live one. The daughter of Red Ransome and a Theatrical mare won smartly at first asking earning a 75 SR for 6f on the grass but was injured 2 weeks later in a stakes attempt. She finally returned in week 760 and ran a splendid race finishing 3rd in the Bad Deal-G3 at 7f with an 83 SR. She rated off the early pace then closed willingly in the stretch suggesting than an extra furlong could very well suit. Just off the pace could be a nice spot to be as a pace battle looks probable. The odds reflect the single bad start and she really should be much lower. Pedigree looks great, the speeds are there and she could be the one at a nice price.

Queenavenger (theavenger) starts at 14-1 for Delaware and showed a big improvement tackling the mile last time out. The daughter of Kingmambo and an A. P. Indy broke her maiden going short on the main track and has yet to cross first against winners in 4 subsequent starts. Racing in Delaware's Stretch Series 4 weeks ago, Queenavenger battled for the lead throughout before slipping to 2nd beaten 4 lengths while earning a career best 76 SR. There will be lots of company on the front end and she'll likely have to improve her SR again but it looks like the mile distance is good for her, a caveat being that the going was yielding last time out. She would be a surprise to win but has a pretty fair shot at a board finish if that last one wasn't an aberration.

Creme Anglaise (jhenry) represents New York at 15-1 and she is another could make some noise at this longer distance. The daughter of Miesque's Son and a Shareef Dancer mare shows 2 wins and 2 thirds from 4 starts with a victory coming in the Newmarket 725 at 6f. Two starts back she finished an even running third in the 7f Escapade-G3 earning a 75 SR while 2 weeks ago she also finished 3rd with a slower SR on ground labelled good. Creme Anglaise has been competitive in every start and her running lines and pedigree suggest that the added distance certainly won't hurt. Another with a legitimate chance to hit the board if not win the whole thing.

Julie G (medusa starts for Minnesota at 13-1. The daughter of El Gran Senor and a Mr. Prospector mare shows 3 wins from 5 starts including a victory in the Ostend 774 at 6 1/2f on the turf last time out. Her highest turf SR of 70 is too slow to win this race but Julie G has never tried the mile and improvement is certainly possible.

Muse (browns) competes for Nebraska at 13-1 and is another interesting long shot. The daughter of Danzig and a Rainbow Quest mare broke her maiden at first asking and has subsequently placed in 3 stakes. Her best SR of 76 came at this distance on turf as she ran evenly throughout finishing 3rd. Her last 2 starts have not been as good as she's run a 71 both times in sprints. A return to 8f appears to be in her advantage and she's one of several who could fit the equation for at least a share.

Ridge Lauren (llc) represents North Carolina at 21-1. The daughter of Nureyev and a Cox's Ridge mare won her first 2 starts including an excellent 80 SR in a main track sprint. She's winless in 5 subsequent starts although she woke up a little last time out running a 72 SR for 6 1/2f on the lawn. Ridge Lauren has never gone a mile and is hoping that she likes the extra distance.

Alyjet (celticcros) starts at 26-1 for Ireland and is still a maiden after 5 starts. The well bred daughter of Theatrical and an Alydar mare just missed last time out beaten by a half length at 7f on the turf while earning a 69 SR. This is a mighty tough spot to win a first race and a small cheque would be a big accomplishment.

Brilliant Speed (zokker completes the field representing Turfstar at 45-1. The daughter of Theatrical and a Kingmambo mare ran a solid turf mile in week 711 earning a 75 SR as she just got nipped at the end. She returned to break her maiden in a restricted allowance tilt at the same distance and won with a slow 58 SR. Brilliant Speed showed a flash of ability in that good race and will have to revisit it to have an impact in here.

And there you have it. The favorites figure to play a role at the finish but in which order I have no idea. Madyson's Hi looks to have as much claim as any other to the win and at 11-1 is a juicy play indeed. Provellian will certainly argue if her current condition is okay while Auror Storm and Gots The Gold Teef could be there if they don't wear each other out in a speed battle. Several underdogs show potential to step up in their first attempts at the distance, if not for the win at least for a share. Like every race on the card it should be a fabulous affair.