China's nuclear arsenal is in the midst of a rapid modernization program begun in the mid-1980s. By increasing the size, accuracy, range, and survivability of the nuclear arsenal, Chinese leaders aim to strengthen Beijing's deterrent. China hopes to mimic the United States and Russia in deploying its nuclear weapons in a sea-, air-, and land-based triad.

In the next decade, China will likely make its most precipitous headway in the development of ballistic missiles. Development efforts stress increasing the number of mobile, solid-fuel, intercontinental missiles in order to maximize deterrence. Currently China has a host of nuclear missiles at its disposal. These include 20 liquid-fueled intermediate range Dong Feng-4s (DF-4s), 48 medium range solid-fuel DF-21s, which are mobile, and 20 silo-based intercontinental DF-5s, which can reach the United States. The DF-3 has become outdated and is being retired. Other solid-fueled short-range missiles, the DF-11 and DF-15 (they are called the M-11 and M-9 when exported), may have nuclear capability. Two new mobile solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are under development.

U.S. intelligence surmises that China has long had the ability to develop multiple reentry vehicles (MRVs) for its missiles. Should China choose to develop these systems, ICBMs could be so-outfitted within only a few years. U.S. deployment of a missile defense system could precipitate such action.

The weakness of the Chinese Air Force had led Beijing toward dependence on Russian aid. Today, China relies primarily on two types of aircraft for its nuclear force, about 100 Soviet-based medium-range bombers - the Hong-6 - and 30 shorter-range Qian-5. A supersonic fighter-bomber, the JH-7, has been under development for more than a decade. It is not currently outfitted to carry nuclear bombs. Owning to technical problems, few have been deployed. China has purchased around 80 SU-30 multi-role aircraft from the Russians. Additionally, the Russians have sold China 58 SU-27s, along with production rights and engineering assistance, which should allow China to produce another 200 SU-27s by 2015. While both the SU-30s and SU-27s could be modified to fulfill a nuclear mission, there is scant indication that such modification is underway.

Efforts to upgrade China's SSBN fleet continue, but technical hurdles have limited progress. China is believed to have 12 Julang I submarine-launched ballistic missiles stored at Jianggezhuang Submarine Base where its one nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, the Xia, is housed. It is not clear whether this sub is operational. China has a long-term plan to build four to six new SSBNs, which will carry 16 Julang II missiles. These may have intercontinental range. The new subs are not likely to be deployed for many years.

The Chinese stockpile is located at some 20 sites.