[My comments in bold]
Greetings Y2Ker's,
Don't you get tired of polarization in y2k...or in Americam politics? It seems that if you dare challenge the left wing on leginimate points, you are called a right-wing-fascist pig. If you dare challenge and attempt to argue against legitimate points against the Right you are labeled a "communist." The same is true with y2k: Doomsayers and Pollyannas. Its so unfortunate that we must think this way.
Anyways...
Less than 50% has been spent in Canada...Which is supposed to be far ahead of other countries. I have faith they will avert a total breakdown, but not much above. ..
The US is 10 times bigger in terms of GDP than canada. It has only spent $120 billion out of an estimated $500 billion budgeted, which is only 24%. This news is not good.
From: http://www.globalmf.org/march1999.htm Monthly Report for March 1999. Global Millennium Foundation
...The total cost to Canada is estimated to be $50 billion. Current estimates of the amount spent to date indicate approximately $20 billion. These two numbers suggest overall progress at below the 50% level. This information appears to contradict statements from economists that the bulk of the effort has been completed. This observation matches the detail level budget information for many organizations, which have a peak spending period in the future months of 1999. The volume of change activity represented by these financial numbers and the corresponding increase in problem volumes is one area of major concern. The growing recognition that many organizations have left this issue too late is resulting in a trend towards "freezing" other activities in order to provide additional resources as well as reduce changes volumes. This will result in fewer sales from organizations selling products or solutions that are not related to Y2K. If this trend is not correctly anticipated it will result in significant stress on many business operations.
United States:
Media reports confirm a shift towards accepting the need for modest personal preparation. Various degrees of censorship have been observed that lean towards presenting a more positive image. The fear of a public panic appears to be among the top issues. Little recognition exists for the additional risks created by merger activity. Recent estimates of approximately $120 billion spent overall, are not encouraging. The size of the U.S. Y2K problem is approximately ten times the size of Canada?s problem. This would suggest a final total in the $500 billion range which leaves a huge amount of effort to be completed in the remaining time.
Global:
The conflict in Kosovo dominates much of the world?s attention. Little significant change in reports from other countries. China and Japan have less Y2K risk than reported by the Western media. The breakdown in the agreement between Russia and the U.S. is unfortunate. Europe?s Y2K problem may represent the greatest danger to the global economy. Perhaps Brussels can assist in regional coordination and status reporting.
Conclusion:
Canada is positioned to experience a minimum of infrastructure failures. The major risk to Canada is from the economic side. The only option remains an aggressive global cooperation.
***********************
Russia withdraws from Y2K co-operation efforts? Kosovo seems to be leading to something big...EH? Or maybe I'm just an apocalyptic fanatic.
The White House point man on Year 2000 preparedness in the US today told Newsbytes that news reports claiming Russia has broken offits Year 2000 collaboration with the States are not necessarily true.
"I have been given no official announcement that they are withdrawing (from the effort)," John Koskinen said at a news conference in Washington, D.C. "From all the information that wehave now, I think we'll continue the dialogue."
Koskinen spoke about the Russian-US collaboration at today's announcement that 92 percent of the US government has remedied, implemented and tested its own Year 2000 fixes. The collaboration was formally announced last month,
According to recent press reports in the US and Russia, PrimeMinister Yevgeny Primakov signaled a forced hiatus in the Year2000 preparations, when he canceled a meeting with Vice President Al Gore because of the ongoing NATO military offensive in Kosovo.....
*******************
News stories indicate possibility of future war... Russian missiles possibly re-aimed at NATO nations.
Era of world war...From Yeltsin's own mouth Yeltsin talks of world war, aiming missiles at NATO
Saturday, April 10, 1999
By DAVID HOFFMAN and JOHN F. HARRIS
Washington Post News Service
President Boris N. Yeltsin threatened the West on Friday, saying that if Russia is pushed into military action in the Balkans, it would lead to war in Europe, "or maybe even a world war." And he suggested that Russia might aim nuclear missiles at NATO members, as it did during the Cold War.
His comments appeared to be directed more at heading off internal political challenges -- including a scheduled impeachment vote next week -- than at announcing any specific new military moves. Yeltsin reiterated that Russia wanted to stay out of the Yugoslav conflict, and officials said no new orders were issued to the missile forces, who in any case could program missile targets in a matter of minutes.
Yeltsin's truculent rhetoric caused a momentary wave of alarm in Washington, where senior Clinton administration officials promptly called their counterparts in Moscow for clarification. By late morning, senior officials said they had been given assurances that Yeltsin was not planning to retarget missiles, and that Russia does not have any intention of intervening in the Kosovo conflict.
But the episode highlighted a continuing diplomatic challenge for the Clinton White House: containing Russian anger about the NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, a country with which Russia has a historic affinity. The military action has infuriated the Russian populace and many of its leaders.
Attempting to contain the damage, senior administration officials are on the telephone daily with their Russian counterparts -- to soothe their anger and to discuss whether Russia can facilitate a diplomatic outcome to the crisis.
Precisely what Yeltsin said Friday remained murky. Some senior Clinton administration officials said they believed Yeltsin's comments may have been described inaccurately by other Russian officials, but they allowed that Yeltsin -- who has a history of flamboyant comments that are later softened by subordinates -- may have actually made the comments for his own domestic political purposes.
The Kremlin refused to release a videotape of the remarks that caused Friday's tempest, saying it was a "working" version. But the comments about missile retargeting reportedly were made to Gennady Seleznev, speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of Parliament, the who recounted them later to journalists.
"It was said that if escalation of war continues, we will -- I do not know the exact wording -- be forced to [make] a retargeting or reprogramming" of the missiles "at those countries who conduct war with Yugoslavia and do not hear Russia's voice about stopping the bombing," Seleznev said.
Yeltsin, reacting to strong anti-Western sentiments stirred by the NATO attack against Russia's longtime ally, also said: "I have already told NATO, the Americans, and the Germans that they should not push us toward military action. Otherwise, there will be at a minimum a European war, or maybe even a world war, which must not be permitted."
But Yeltsin reiterated his refusal to sell arms now to Yugoslavia and added that "they are slightly offended." He said some hard-liners in Parliament are threatening to vote to impeach him next week unless he gives a green light to arms transfers, which would violate a U.N. embargo.
The mixed signals sent by the speech highlight a quandary for Washington. Clinton administration officials are debating whether Russian anger over the NATO attacks against Yugoslav and Serbian forces might lead it to take steps beyond mere rhetorical denunciations, and whether the disagreement is a passing tension or could lead to a serious rupture.
"Their concern is not so much with the Serbs, although they are concerned about that," said a senior Clinton administration official who works on Russia issues. Instead, this official said the White House believes Russia's concern is more self-interested, reflecting pique that NATO would carry out a military action in defiance of Moscow. "They don't want to be irrelevant. They don't want to be left out of the international security scene," the official said.
But several administration officials said senior Russian officials are much more moderate in their conversations with U.S. officials than in their public rhetoric. And several officials said many Russian officials regard the NATO bombing, which has not caused the hoped-for retreat by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, as not merely an affront but an opportunity. "The Russians are genuinely and seriously interested in getting a peace deal," one senior official Friday said.
But most of the discussions between Washington and Moscow, according to U.S. officials, have been ritualistic. The Russians have demanded that the bombing be stopped, which Clinton won't agree to. The U.S. officials repeat NATO's demands, which Russia has not been able to persuade Milosevic to accept.
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright spoke about the alleged missile retargeting with Russian Foreign Minister Ivan Ivanov Friday morning. The two agreed to discuss Kosovo in Oslo on Tuesday, said State Department spokesman James P. Rubin.
Michael McFaul, a Russian scholar at Stanford University, said the Clinton administration is underestimating Russian anger. "The general view in the administration is that this will all be over when the war ends," he said. "I think they're dead wrong about that."
If so, the implications go far deeper than missile targeting. Yeltsin announced in Paris on May 27, 1997, at the ceremony marking Russia's agreement to a Founding Act with NATO, that missiles were being reprogrammed so they would not be aimed at alliance members. But this gesture was mostly symbolic, because missiles can be reprogrammed within minutes. The Kremlin insisted that no retargeting has taken place.
Copyright © 1999 Bergen Record Corp.
Home Page: Future, Doomsday, Year2000
