During the Cold War we faced the constant spector of nuclear annihilation. It may seem like a safer world now that the U.S.S.R. is history, but the opposite is true. Russia is disorganized and it has socially and economically collapsed , practically being run by the mafia. They are currently in a political crisis which may lead to another strong-arm dictatorship, and will be president Vladimir Putin who will strengthen through August 2000, though there is some who comes after him.
It is shockingly following the same path as 1920's Germany which indicates a new form of nationalism could arise, forming a new military challenge to the U.S. Shortly after Yeltsin's resignation a new military doctrine was announced lowering the threshold for the first use of nuclear weapons and proclaims Russia's intention to oppose American domination of the international system. The intention to...
"actively oppose a unipolar world dominated by the United States as part of its effort to strengthen Russia's position not only in areas near its borders but also around the world and to be willing to use its military toward that end. According to the new doctrine, "the level and scale of threats [to Russia] is growing," and it is for that reason that Moscow must build up its military forces."
The post-cold war era is over.
NATO attacked Yugoslavia, provoking angry tensions from much of the world directed toward the US. On April 12, 1999 Russia formed an alliance with Yugoslavia illustrated in the Conflict in Kosovo, and is one of many steps on the road leading to world war three.
Russia has now moved into a New Axis (or alliance) with China, North Korea, the African Communist/socialist states, and the radical Islamic states of the Middle East. they are actively and aggressively preparing for war just as Germany and Japan did in the 1930s.
Ex-Soviet nuclear material, knowledge and scientists are scattered around the globe. India and Pakistan recently set off under ground nuclear tests in a show of arms. Shortly after, Russia formed an alliance with India (gone un-noticed by American reporters).
North Korea is in the throes of famine with 2-3 million deaths
Nuclear capable China is beginning to flex it's muscles and has the largest manned military and Navy in the World. They will undoubtedly become a new power-house of the 21st century. NATO bombed its Embassy in Yugoslavia. China currently preparing for war, first with Taiwan, then along with a pact with Russia and other radical states, may go head to head with the U.S. in the coming years as shown in: Global Realignment; Origins of the Third World War
The massive $50 billion trade surpluses with America are going almost entirely into a military, weaponry build up. 14 of its current 18 ICBMs are aimed at the west coast of America. Soon, thanks in part to the recent nuclear spy thefts, will have hundreds--them thousands.
Iraq and the Middle East are still (and always) on the edge, and could soon erupt into something quite severe as they suffer daily bombing. This global war will revolve around this region and will be tied into resources, namely oil and water. It can be expected for Russia and China at some point to intervene with the flow of oil to the West, provoking a crisis which America, which is view as an imperialist bully, will have to respond.
The U.S. military has shrunk, and may not be able to effectively conduct such a comprehensive, major war. Biological weapons are the new means of mass destruction, and can be cooked up in a kitchen by any terrorist nation wanting to teach the 'Great Satan' a lesson.
World tensions and exitability will undoubtedly rise when the global economy enters a nose dive beyond 2000 , political tensions mount, and the solar sunspot cycle reaches its maximum, it will only take a light trigger to set off a serious world conflict. Sometime after 2000 some will obviously take it as an opportunity to settle old grudges. It is in such an environment that nations rise up against one another.
What will rogue nations have to lose in attacking their foes (or us) when millions of their own are dying of starvation and disease? WWIII is inevitable whether it happens in 2004, 2006, 2012 or 2025. According to the Fourth Turning, based on generational cycles, we are due for an era of total war in the next 20 years or so. It may be a necessary to endure such a catastrophe so devestating so as to make us beat our swords into plowshares and say "Never Again." After such an event and societal re-construction, we then can start anew, ushering in a new global golden age. Maybe this is the long awaited 'great purification ' .
The following speculations were made in 1998 by Jeff Nyquist after determining how the rivalry and post-cold war situation progressed. Remember, these were made in 1998:
(a) Crisis in Balkans, Middle East or Far
East worsens.
STATUS: CAME TRUE.
The war in both Iraq and Yugoslavia
erupted--may soon erupt further(?). NATO
Bombs Chinese embassy
(b) Russian war mobilization continues,
China coordinates with Russia
STATUS: CAME TRUE.
They recently (quietly) signed
an alliance pact with China which may
soon become official. They
are gearing up their military
medditeranian in response to NATO
& the US.
(c) U.S. fails to mobilize or misreads
danger signs
STATUS:TRUE SO FAR. It
has seen the danger signs and
has not stepped up readiness for such a
future war, though it has increased
military spending.
(d) Russian fleet goes to sea, civilian population
placed in shelters
STATUS:NOT YET HAPPENED.
Has not put civilians in shelters, no fleets at sea.
(e) Nuclear exchange between Russia and United
States takes place in early A.M.
STATUS:NOT YET HAPPENED
(f) Chinese troops appear in West Coast ports and
Panama Canal. Russian troops appear in Alaska,
Canada.
STATUS:NOT YET HAPPENED
(g) United States collapses
STATUS:NOT YET HAPPENED
(h) China and Russia suffer genuine split after loss
of mutual enemy.
STATUS:NOT YET HAPPENED
"There is profound error and harm in the disoriented claims of bourgeois ideologues that there will be no victor in a thermonuclear war. " -A.S. Milovidov, Russian Military Theorist
"The principle of the employment of nuclear weapons in combination with other means of destruction follows from the fact that it is impossible to destroy all varied objectives on the battlefield with nuclear weapons alone. It is believed that nuclear weapons, as the main means of destruction, will be employed only for the destruction of the most important objectives; all other targets are neutralized and destroyed by the artillery, aviation, and the fire of tanks and other weapons. " -Colonel A.A. Sidorenko, Soviet Strategist
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when we are far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him." -Sun Tzu
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