This site is predicting at least the possibility
of a near-total economic collapse. Why not something
more
mild like a recession or depression? The compounding effect.
If all we had to worry about is the
economic effects of Y2K, it may not be so bad (although this alone
may be enough to do it). On top of the actual computer/business
failures/bankruptcies directly attributed to y2k, we then have to factor the
panic reaction in anticipation of Y2K. We then have to consider the fact
that the world has already entered a severe global recession (Asia, Russia and Latin America)
which will soon engulf
the rest of the world (
including the U.S. ), as described in
Global Instability, Wealth Inequality & Depressions.
Then factor in long-term Social/economic cycles such as the The Fourth Turning
or the
Kondratieff Wave or a
Replay of the 1929 bear market and we have a clear view of the
big picture.
It is about all of the above occuring at the same time, which means thay all
interact and compound on one another. This is why we will not experience "just" a
recession. There are too many straws on the camel's back that are going
to
pile up all at once.
In other words, let's say for the sake argument and use simplictic math;
the effects of y2k alone
will cause a severe recession . We would then have to add the effects
of panic bank runs and a severe
Stock market decline
which is directly atributed to y2k.
Therefore we now have a double intensity recession which would approach a
depression.
In other words, recession + recession = depression.
Now it must be considered that most of the world will already be in
a severe recession and the stock markets will have already have
lost much of their value
when these y2k effects begin. We now have the sum of an already
occuring
recession
(in progress) + a depression from y2k. Therefore recession +
depression= economic collapse.
This example uses basic addition (i.e. 2 + 2= 4) but the reality of compound effect may
make the equation 2 + 2= 5
This also uses optimistic values. If the assessment of this site is correct,
It would be collapse + collapse + depression =
total societal collapse. Therefore it is the interaction
of these forces occuring at the same time, each element adding fuel to
each other's flames which will cause the camel to break its back.
This is "The Economics of Collapse" and is outside the scope of
traditional acedemic economics which
is far too marginalized (and dismal). It is
the study of how the system itself becomes unsustainable and
folds in upon itself...It probably would
have come close to doing so anyways; we were due for a depression even if y2k didn't exsist.
y2k will simply ensure it happens in its totality.
What does this mean for the future? Probably
the end of free capitalism as we know it, an end to the rule of
money/debt in society and a radical alteration of
the current
military/industrial/welfare complex. This may sound farfetched and
impossible in 1998,
but so was the thought of communism/Soviet Union
collapsing in 1984, yet happened in 1991.
Their example should teach us some valuable
lessons and insight.
