India Raises the Stakes..

FOCUS ARCHIVE:

Pakistan and India, the world's latest Nuclear Powers, have the ability to devastate the entire region, which may very well be the beginning of the 3rd WW, or even the beginning of the end...

December 13th, NewDelhi IN.

5 gunmen storm the Indian Parliment building killing 7 guards and one civilian. The fact that they used an Ambassador car used by Indian MPs and Security Services and that they were dressed in military fatigues shows they were well prepared guerilla fighters posibilly from Kashmir origin. Moreover, the car was packed with explosives which the Indians believe is a sequel to a similar suicidal attack on the Kashmiri Parliment in Srinagar a month ago.

It was obvious to everyone in India that these terrorists belonged to ISI as all blame from such incidents eventually does come to rest on the shoulders of the infamous Pakistan Secret Service [ISI].

In Pakistan it is widely believed that Indian Research and Analysis Wing [RAW] staged this act to get American sympathies and possibly divert the War-on-Terrorism from Afghanistan to Pakistan. APHC denounced the attack, so did Pres Musharraf and none of the Kashmiri militant groups claimed responsibility for the attack. It is unlikely for any Militant Organization in the world to deny such a defiant act on the Enemy Seat of Power itself which carries a Gold Medal status in their circles. Although there may be political reasons for such a denial since Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM] and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba [LeT] have already been banned by US and thus Pakistan.

Therefore one cannot be certain of the body behind this attack, with some even blaming Isreali Secret Service Mossad, while the motive can clearly be understood; Destabilise the situation in SouthAsia which was surely achieved.

The Indians made much hue and cry after the incident mostly through tough political statements on the media. To the Indians' utter disappointment, America refused to go against Pakistan, not yet atleast, and A.B.Vajpayee found himself left with no other choice but to act himself. He thus ordered massive troops and armour buildup along the border with Pakistan. Furthermore socalled Economic Sanctions were implemented against Pakistan, that met with a tit-for-tat response from Pakistan.

SAMJHOTA EXPRESS, BUS SERVICE::
Termination of services from 1st January will affect passagers on both sides of border equally.

AIRSPACE CLOSURE::
Bilateral closure of Air Space affects AirIndia more than PIA since AI routes to Central Asia, Gulf, Europe and US have been affected while PIA routes to East and SouthEast Asia have been affected.

AMBASSADOR RECALL::
Serves Indian purpose of increasing diplomatic pressure on Pakistan and also generating war hype, but as Pakistan didnot respond in similar fashion, bilateral war-like scenario was not generated.

TRADE EMBARGO::
Again affects India more since Indian exports to Pakistan far exceed the imports from her.

TV CHANNELS::
Pakistan and India both have now cut access to each other's TV channels in their respective countries.

WAR HYPE::
India is playing a strategic war game hoping to cash the two-front scenario the Pakistan Army is facing along its Western and Eastern Borders. By troops and artillery deployment along Punjab and Armour along Sindh, India is shown to be preparing for a massive Invasion. However analysts believe such an Invasion Threat is only to hallucinate Pak Army of the real threat which may come as an Invasion of Azad Kashmir (in the name of destroying the terrorist camps there) while Pak Army is expecting such a situation far south.

MISSILE DEPLOYMENT::
In response to Indian troops buildup Pak Army has responded by deployment of its Short Range Ballistic Missiles [SRBMs] having Indian Capital NewDelhi in target alongwith major towns in Punjab and Hariyana. Indians have responded by deploying their SRBMs having Islamabad, Lahore and Faisalabad in target.

MILITARY ANALYSIS::
In case of a conventional war, both Indian and Pak Army have thier ups and downs making it a stalemate situation; A conventional war could thus only be won with strategy and not warfare. On the Nuclear front, Indian Arsenal surely outnumbers Pakistan's but then again in a nuclear exchange, there are no winners at all!

POSSIBLE OUTCOME::
Analysts believe the situation may diffuse in the coming month due to increasing International pressure on India and Pakistan. However, with political stakes raised, it seems like a war of survival for both Vajpayee and Musharraf in the domestic arena. Vajpayee having generated such war hype is left with no other choice but confrontataion with Pakistan, which may be a limited invasion of AK. All-out war with Nuclear intervention is usually ruled out by most analysts but only with little certainity.

Filed on December 30th 2001.